November 6, 2024
Election 2024: What Just Happened? And What Does it Mean?
Nolan McCarty
Professor of Politics and Public Affairs, Princeton University
Election 2024: What Just Happened? And What Does it Mean?
Nolan McCarty
Professor of Politics and Public Affairs, Princeton University
Nolan McCarty and Paul Fitzgerald, introducer
Minutes of the Ninth Meeting of the 83rd Year
President George Bustin convened the ninth meeting of the Old Guard’s 83rd year at the Springdale Golf Club on November 6, 2024. Frances Slade led the invocation. Larry Hans read the minutes of the previous meeting.
Guests were introduced by Patricia Taylor – Charles Rebick and Toby Taylor; and by John Kelsey – Brian Zack who is applying for membership. The total attendance was 125.
Paul Fitzgerald introduced Nolan McCarty, Susan Dod Brown Professor of Politics and Public Affairs, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University. He is Vice Dean for Academic Assessment in the Office of the Dean of the Faculty and served as the chair of Princeton Politics Department from 2011-2018.
He has written on a variety of topics related U.S. politics and political economy ranging from the causes and consequences of political polarization, economic and politic inequality, regulation, and the political role of business. He has also engaged in the development of statistical methodologies and the application of game theoretic models to political questions.
He spoke to the Old Guard the day after the midterm election in 2022.
Professor McCarty began by pointing out that it’s hard to prepare post-election comment before the election actually takes place. He did start on Tuesday but as results came in, he tore up his notes and started over. There were 17 points with some sub-points he finally came up with for his Old Guard talk.
His first point was that the election was a referendum on the economy under Biden, and Harris was part of that. Inflation was obvious to the electorate and had good memories of the stimulus under Trump. McCarty also pointed out that incumbent parties – both Liberal and Conservative – around the world have suffered in post-inflation elections.
Secondly, few issues were or will be permanently settled. Abortion will continue to be fought in states and courts; taxes and tariffs will go up and down, alliances will adjust and readjust. The exception may be the amount of support for Ukraine.
One result that matters is the slight congressional majorities. The Senate has flipped to the Republicans and may struggle under the new leadership provided by John Thune or John Cornyn, the current likely choices. Thune may be closer to Trump. Senators Murkowski and Collins are still there to provide some moderation. The GOP seems to be on track to keep the House, but the small majority will continue to struggle.
Our speaker stated that current polling methods are broken. The polling for the last three elections were in error. His only reply to making an election prediction was that the general result of a “tie” still had a margin of error that could flip to a “landslide” either way. Only 2.5% of those asked to participate in a poll respond positively. That means the pollster doesn’t know what 97.5% feel about the issue in question. And for a given election, the unpredictable weather can skew the result.
The Electoral College bias that supposedly gave Republicans an advantage appears to have evaporated. The Electoral votes and the popular vote percentages are nearly the same. This is due to a movement of minorities toward Trump, especially Latinos who are underrepresented in swing states. The decrease of the education gap has led to more Harris votes in Red States. The GOP vote has increased in the suburbs. The returns from the D.C. suburbs on election night that Harris had underperformed Biden’s previous vote there led to the shredding of our speaker’s notes and his starting over.
Professor McCarty asked if it’s time to re-think early voting. It started as a convenience for those who would out of town on election day or were disabled and couldn’t get to the polls. Then it became available for everyone and as early as six weeks before the vote. He pointed out that a lot can and does happen in the last days of a campaign. It’s also difficult for down-ballot positions where candidates have less money and fewer paid workers. Local election campaigns may be entirely staffed by volunteers.
There were six states and the District of Columbia with voting reforms on the ballot. Most were for a change to ranked voting. Ony the D.C. reform passed. A vote in Alaska to repeal their ranked voting is too close to call.
Eleven states had some form of an abortion rights issue on the ballot and eight of them passed. There was a majority vote to change the Florida constitution but not the required 60%.
In the new administration the president has the power to set whatever tariffs he wants. Trump has indicated he wants an across the board 10% for everyone and a little more for China. This will raise revenue and also help U.S. manufacturing. It’s not clear what it will do to the overall U.S. economy.
A look at policy based on possible appointments so far such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., or the influence of Elon Musk are hard to predict. What is probable is that you won’t see many faces that were in the previous Trump administration. Most have written books on why they wouldn’t serve Trump again. The best clue is, of course, the infamous Project 2025 book of 900 pages of details. Trump has denied knowledge of it, but Professor McCarty suggested it’s the most likely preview of what’s to come after January 20th, 2025.
A longer than usual Q&A followed the lecture.
The question that remains is: Has the Program Committee booked Professor McCarty for November 4, 2026?
Respectfully submitted,
Jock McFarlane
Guests were introduced by Patricia Taylor – Charles Rebick and Toby Taylor; and by John Kelsey – Brian Zack who is applying for membership. The total attendance was 125.
Paul Fitzgerald introduced Nolan McCarty, Susan Dod Brown Professor of Politics and Public Affairs, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University. He is Vice Dean for Academic Assessment in the Office of the Dean of the Faculty and served as the chair of Princeton Politics Department from 2011-2018.
He has written on a variety of topics related U.S. politics and political economy ranging from the causes and consequences of political polarization, economic and politic inequality, regulation, and the political role of business. He has also engaged in the development of statistical methodologies and the application of game theoretic models to political questions.
He spoke to the Old Guard the day after the midterm election in 2022.
Professor McCarty began by pointing out that it’s hard to prepare post-election comment before the election actually takes place. He did start on Tuesday but as results came in, he tore up his notes and started over. There were 17 points with some sub-points he finally came up with for his Old Guard talk.
His first point was that the election was a referendum on the economy under Biden, and Harris was part of that. Inflation was obvious to the electorate and had good memories of the stimulus under Trump. McCarty also pointed out that incumbent parties – both Liberal and Conservative – around the world have suffered in post-inflation elections.
Secondly, few issues were or will be permanently settled. Abortion will continue to be fought in states and courts; taxes and tariffs will go up and down, alliances will adjust and readjust. The exception may be the amount of support for Ukraine.
One result that matters is the slight congressional majorities. The Senate has flipped to the Republicans and may struggle under the new leadership provided by John Thune or John Cornyn, the current likely choices. Thune may be closer to Trump. Senators Murkowski and Collins are still there to provide some moderation. The GOP seems to be on track to keep the House, but the small majority will continue to struggle.
Our speaker stated that current polling methods are broken. The polling for the last three elections were in error. His only reply to making an election prediction was that the general result of a “tie” still had a margin of error that could flip to a “landslide” either way. Only 2.5% of those asked to participate in a poll respond positively. That means the pollster doesn’t know what 97.5% feel about the issue in question. And for a given election, the unpredictable weather can skew the result.
The Electoral College bias that supposedly gave Republicans an advantage appears to have evaporated. The Electoral votes and the popular vote percentages are nearly the same. This is due to a movement of minorities toward Trump, especially Latinos who are underrepresented in swing states. The decrease of the education gap has led to more Harris votes in Red States. The GOP vote has increased in the suburbs. The returns from the D.C. suburbs on election night that Harris had underperformed Biden’s previous vote there led to the shredding of our speaker’s notes and his starting over.
Professor McCarty asked if it’s time to re-think early voting. It started as a convenience for those who would out of town on election day or were disabled and couldn’t get to the polls. Then it became available for everyone and as early as six weeks before the vote. He pointed out that a lot can and does happen in the last days of a campaign. It’s also difficult for down-ballot positions where candidates have less money and fewer paid workers. Local election campaigns may be entirely staffed by volunteers.
There were six states and the District of Columbia with voting reforms on the ballot. Most were for a change to ranked voting. Ony the D.C. reform passed. A vote in Alaska to repeal their ranked voting is too close to call.
Eleven states had some form of an abortion rights issue on the ballot and eight of them passed. There was a majority vote to change the Florida constitution but not the required 60%.
In the new administration the president has the power to set whatever tariffs he wants. Trump has indicated he wants an across the board 10% for everyone and a little more for China. This will raise revenue and also help U.S. manufacturing. It’s not clear what it will do to the overall U.S. economy.
A look at policy based on possible appointments so far such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., or the influence of Elon Musk are hard to predict. What is probable is that you won’t see many faces that were in the previous Trump administration. Most have written books on why they wouldn’t serve Trump again. The best clue is, of course, the infamous Project 2025 book of 900 pages of details. Trump has denied knowledge of it, but Professor McCarty suggested it’s the most likely preview of what’s to come after January 20th, 2025.
A longer than usual Q&A followed the lecture.
The question that remains is: Has the Program Committee booked Professor McCarty for November 4, 2026?
Respectfully submitted,
Jock McFarlane