December 10, 2025
The Rise and Fall of Constitutional Governments
Kim Scheppele
Professor of Sociology and International Affairs in the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and the University Center for Human Values at Princeton University
The Rise and Fall of Constitutional Governments
Kim Scheppele
Professor of Sociology and International Affairs in the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and the University Center for Human Values at Princeton University
George Bustin, introducer, and Kim Sheppele
Minutes of the 13th Meeting of the 84th Year
George Bustin, Old Guard president, called the meeting to order and presided. He advised the audience where the coat room was located in The Jewish Center, now that winter had arrived. Bustin also reminded new Old Guard members that ties, scarves and thumb drives are now available for those who still need to procure them. Contact Teri Lemischka, Membership chair.
Attendance at The Jewish Center was 137. Five guests were present: Peter Bogucki (guest of Rob Stengel), Barbara Fernandez (guest of Rick Fernandez), Meredith Von Kohorn (guest of Henry Von Kohorn), Carol Pollard (guest of Mark Pollard) and Anne O’Neill (guest of Don Light). Henry Von Kohorn read the minutes of the December 3 meeting. President Bustin also noted that the winter speaker roster is available on the Old Guard website, with the first meeting planned for January 7, 2026. He wished all a happy and healthy holiday season. Julie Elward-Berry was identified as the minute-taker.
George Bustin introduced the speaker, Kim Scheppele, Lawrence S. Rockefeller Professor of Sociology and International Affairs and Director of the Program in Law and Normative Thinking at the Center for Human Values at Princeton University. Her work has focused on the rise and fall of constitutional democracy, initially with new constitutional courts in Hungary and Russia. Since 2010, she has been documenting attacks on constitutional democracy by legalistic autocrats. Her book Destroying (and Restoring) Democracy by Law is forthcoming from Harvard University Press. She had just returned from a semester as a visiting professor at Stanford University.
Professor Scheppele began by introducing a complex slide documenting numbers of four types of government over the period 1789 through 2024. Two of the four were electoral democracies and liberal democracies. The liberal democracies she defined as “true” democracies, which have been decreasing in number since the 1950’s and the Cold War. She described how they die: usually by law. A leader is elected fairly the first time but then begins to dismantle checks on the executive branch to retain power indefinitely. Current examples comprise Putin in Russia, Erdogan in Turkey, Orban in Hungary and Chavez in Venezuela. The new autocrat may work quickly or slowly, but the result remains the same.
Professor Scheppele presented her “ten steps to autocracy” playbook. First, win elections free and fair to begin. Next begin to dismantle checks on executive power by refusing to acknowledge powers of legislator or court or ethics and financial disclosure rules. At this stage, the autocrat will capture the parliament/legislature, and then the judiciary by packing the court or modifying judicial qualifications. Next the autocrat moves to the civil service by austerity reorganization and installation of political appointees in key positions. Now the autocrat turns to control the “enforcement agencies” such as police, prosecutors, military, intelligence and even tax enforcement. At the next stage, the media ceases to be independent, becoming afraid to cover the government accurately, often by having its business interests threatened. Simultaneously, opposition political parties and the general civil society are neutralized. Violence is encouraged against those who threaten the government. Finally, election laws are rewritten so the autocrat never has to leave office.
Professor Scheppele then reviewed the current situation in the United States relative to this “playbook.” She referenced Project 2025, published in 2024 by the Heritage Foundation. The US appears to be following all the steps to autocracy with the 2024 election of Donald Trump: “I will only be a dictator on Day One.” As she stated, the US has already ticked all ten boxes. However, Scheppele states that the unique federalist structure of the US is the mechanism by which the US can successfully work to restore democracy. Blue state attorneys general in particular have been active in bringing legislation against Trump administration violations of the rule of law. In the US, the people and the states and the law are beginning to fight back. Her final slide: “not the end…”
Respectfully submitted,
Julianne Elward-Berry
Attendance at The Jewish Center was 137. Five guests were present: Peter Bogucki (guest of Rob Stengel), Barbara Fernandez (guest of Rick Fernandez), Meredith Von Kohorn (guest of Henry Von Kohorn), Carol Pollard (guest of Mark Pollard) and Anne O’Neill (guest of Don Light). Henry Von Kohorn read the minutes of the December 3 meeting. President Bustin also noted that the winter speaker roster is available on the Old Guard website, with the first meeting planned for January 7, 2026. He wished all a happy and healthy holiday season. Julie Elward-Berry was identified as the minute-taker.
George Bustin introduced the speaker, Kim Scheppele, Lawrence S. Rockefeller Professor of Sociology and International Affairs and Director of the Program in Law and Normative Thinking at the Center for Human Values at Princeton University. Her work has focused on the rise and fall of constitutional democracy, initially with new constitutional courts in Hungary and Russia. Since 2010, she has been documenting attacks on constitutional democracy by legalistic autocrats. Her book Destroying (and Restoring) Democracy by Law is forthcoming from Harvard University Press. She had just returned from a semester as a visiting professor at Stanford University.
Professor Scheppele began by introducing a complex slide documenting numbers of four types of government over the period 1789 through 2024. Two of the four were electoral democracies and liberal democracies. The liberal democracies she defined as “true” democracies, which have been decreasing in number since the 1950’s and the Cold War. She described how they die: usually by law. A leader is elected fairly the first time but then begins to dismantle checks on the executive branch to retain power indefinitely. Current examples comprise Putin in Russia, Erdogan in Turkey, Orban in Hungary and Chavez in Venezuela. The new autocrat may work quickly or slowly, but the result remains the same.
Professor Scheppele presented her “ten steps to autocracy” playbook. First, win elections free and fair to begin. Next begin to dismantle checks on executive power by refusing to acknowledge powers of legislator or court or ethics and financial disclosure rules. At this stage, the autocrat will capture the parliament/legislature, and then the judiciary by packing the court or modifying judicial qualifications. Next the autocrat moves to the civil service by austerity reorganization and installation of political appointees in key positions. Now the autocrat turns to control the “enforcement agencies” such as police, prosecutors, military, intelligence and even tax enforcement. At the next stage, the media ceases to be independent, becoming afraid to cover the government accurately, often by having its business interests threatened. Simultaneously, opposition political parties and the general civil society are neutralized. Violence is encouraged against those who threaten the government. Finally, election laws are rewritten so the autocrat never has to leave office.
Professor Scheppele then reviewed the current situation in the United States relative to this “playbook.” She referenced Project 2025, published in 2024 by the Heritage Foundation. The US appears to be following all the steps to autocracy with the 2024 election of Donald Trump: “I will only be a dictator on Day One.” As she stated, the US has already ticked all ten boxes. However, Scheppele states that the unique federalist structure of the US is the mechanism by which the US can successfully work to restore democracy. Blue state attorneys general in particular have been active in bringing legislation against Trump administration violations of the rule of law. In the US, the people and the states and the law are beginning to fight back. Her final slide: “not the end…”
Respectfully submitted,
Julianne Elward-Berry