January 17, 2024
Dismantling the Nuclear Doomsday Machine
Zia Mian
Co-Director of Program for Science and Global Security, Princeton University
Dismantling the Nuclear Doomsday Machine
Zia Mian
Co-Director of Program for Science and Global Security, Princeton University
Minutes of the 15th Meeting of the 82nd Year
John Cotton, Old Guard president, called the meeting to order and presided, congratulating all the 85“hardy” attendees who had braved the cold and recent snow to attend. Julia Cole and Frances Slade led the invocation. Ira Fuchs read the minutes of the prior meeting. There was one guest: Vince Serpico (guest of Larry Hans). John thanked Nancy Becker, chair of the program committee, for finalizing the Old Guard program through spring 2024. John also noted that the next meeting would be on Wednesday, January 24, again at the Princeton Public Library, featuring Princeton University Athletic Director John Mack.
John Cotton introduced the speaker from a text prepared by Marge D’Amico. Zia Mian is a physicist and co-director of the Program on Science and Global Security in the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, recently completing 25 years with the program. Dr. Mian focuses on nuclear disarmament, arms control, and non-proliferation issues worldwide, the veritable components of a nuclear doomsday machine. He is coauthor of the book Unmaking the Bomb, published in 2014, as well as editor and coeditor of several books and articles on these topics, and two documentary films.
In 2021, Dr. Mian was elected a Fellow of the American Physical Society (APS) for “promoting global nuclear risk reduction and disarmament through academic research, public speaking, technical and popular writing, and organizing efforts.” In 2020, he helped co-found the Physicists Coalition for Nuclear Threat Reduction, a group now numbering over 1000 members that educates physicists to inform Congress and the public about what can be done to reduce nuclear dangers. Most notably, he is co-chair of the Scientific Advisory Group of the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which has been signed by 93 countries and entered into force in January 2021.
Today, despite all the efforts at nuclear arms reduction in the post-Cold War era, there remain nine nuclear armed states and 12,500 existing nuclear weapons. The nuclear armed states are: United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China, who have signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty; and Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea, who have not. In addition, there are several nuclear host countries, with Belarus recently added as a host country for Russian nuclear weapons.
Dr. Mian provided a brief history of nuclear development. He introduced Frederick Soddy, a British chemist working at the turn of the last century, who explored the natural decay of radioactive elements, including alpha particles. Soddy is credited with identifying and explaining isotopes, but, more fundamentally, describing atomic reactivity.
Dr. Mian next discussed the Manhattan Project era scientists, beginning with Einstein’s famous letter to President Roosevelt warning about potential German research progress with atom splitting. After two atomic bombs were successfully dropped on Japan in August 1945, many scientists from the Manhattan Project became concerned about the dangers of nuclear bombs. Einstein convened a meeting in downtown Princeton to begin a fundraising drive to facilitate communicating the dangers of nuclear bombs. In parallel, United Nations Resolution 1 (January 24, 1946) called for the establishment of a committee to deal with the problems and dangers of nuclear energy.
In 1949, Russia launched their own nuclear bomb. In 1949, the U.S. began development of the powerful hydrogen bomb and tested it in 1952, which resulted in 700 times the energy release of the original atomic bomb. Years of nuclear atmospheric testing by both the U.S. and Russia followed, until scientists began to warn about health effects from atomic fallout. In the 1960s, third world countries, in particular, were active at the UN, voicing their concerns. President Kennedy was aware of these activities and used them as the basis for his swift handling of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. In the 1980s, Carl Sagan and others warned of the global climate effects of unleashing atomic bombs into the atmosphere. Enough debris would be generated to cause a nuclear winter over significant portions of the globe, resulting in widespread famine, predicted to require a decade for recovery.
Today there is grave political danger because the recent Ukraine war sees Russia and the United States facing off against each other, with Russia threatening to use nuclear force if it cannot readily win. In addition, from a technological perspective, the original nuclear weapons developed from the 1950s require modernization. The U.S. alone is expected to commit over USD70 billion annually for these upgrades. Such upgrades will keep the world awash in state-of-the-art nuclear weapons through the end of the twenty-first century. Such a plan is strongly supported by the entire U.S. defense industry, with most major players containing large nuclear divisions.
Dr. Mian did not provide a “rosy” vision but a realistic one, stressing the importance of providing informed citizens and political input to slow down this nuclear doomsday machine.
Respectfully submitted,
Julianne Elward-Berry
John Cotton introduced the speaker from a text prepared by Marge D’Amico. Zia Mian is a physicist and co-director of the Program on Science and Global Security in the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, recently completing 25 years with the program. Dr. Mian focuses on nuclear disarmament, arms control, and non-proliferation issues worldwide, the veritable components of a nuclear doomsday machine. He is coauthor of the book Unmaking the Bomb, published in 2014, as well as editor and coeditor of several books and articles on these topics, and two documentary films.
In 2021, Dr. Mian was elected a Fellow of the American Physical Society (APS) for “promoting global nuclear risk reduction and disarmament through academic research, public speaking, technical and popular writing, and organizing efforts.” In 2020, he helped co-found the Physicists Coalition for Nuclear Threat Reduction, a group now numbering over 1000 members that educates physicists to inform Congress and the public about what can be done to reduce nuclear dangers. Most notably, he is co-chair of the Scientific Advisory Group of the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which has been signed by 93 countries and entered into force in January 2021.
Today, despite all the efforts at nuclear arms reduction in the post-Cold War era, there remain nine nuclear armed states and 12,500 existing nuclear weapons. The nuclear armed states are: United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China, who have signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty; and Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea, who have not. In addition, there are several nuclear host countries, with Belarus recently added as a host country for Russian nuclear weapons.
Dr. Mian provided a brief history of nuclear development. He introduced Frederick Soddy, a British chemist working at the turn of the last century, who explored the natural decay of radioactive elements, including alpha particles. Soddy is credited with identifying and explaining isotopes, but, more fundamentally, describing atomic reactivity.
Dr. Mian next discussed the Manhattan Project era scientists, beginning with Einstein’s famous letter to President Roosevelt warning about potential German research progress with atom splitting. After two atomic bombs were successfully dropped on Japan in August 1945, many scientists from the Manhattan Project became concerned about the dangers of nuclear bombs. Einstein convened a meeting in downtown Princeton to begin a fundraising drive to facilitate communicating the dangers of nuclear bombs. In parallel, United Nations Resolution 1 (January 24, 1946) called for the establishment of a committee to deal with the problems and dangers of nuclear energy.
In 1949, Russia launched their own nuclear bomb. In 1949, the U.S. began development of the powerful hydrogen bomb and tested it in 1952, which resulted in 700 times the energy release of the original atomic bomb. Years of nuclear atmospheric testing by both the U.S. and Russia followed, until scientists began to warn about health effects from atomic fallout. In the 1960s, third world countries, in particular, were active at the UN, voicing their concerns. President Kennedy was aware of these activities and used them as the basis for his swift handling of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. In the 1980s, Carl Sagan and others warned of the global climate effects of unleashing atomic bombs into the atmosphere. Enough debris would be generated to cause a nuclear winter over significant portions of the globe, resulting in widespread famine, predicted to require a decade for recovery.
Today there is grave political danger because the recent Ukraine war sees Russia and the United States facing off against each other, with Russia threatening to use nuclear force if it cannot readily win. In addition, from a technological perspective, the original nuclear weapons developed from the 1950s require modernization. The U.S. alone is expected to commit over USD70 billion annually for these upgrades. Such upgrades will keep the world awash in state-of-the-art nuclear weapons through the end of the twenty-first century. Such a plan is strongly supported by the entire U.S. defense industry, with most major players containing large nuclear divisions.
Dr. Mian did not provide a “rosy” vision but a realistic one, stressing the importance of providing informed citizens and political input to slow down this nuclear doomsday machine.
Respectfully submitted,
Julianne Elward-Berry