January 30, 2013
Prospects for Transition in Cuba
Stanley Katz
Director, The Center for Arts and Cultural Policy Studies
Princeton University
Prospects for Transition in Cuba
Stanley Katz
Director, The Center for Arts and Cultural Policy Studies
Princeton University
Minutes of the 15th Meeting of the 71st Year
Patience is required when expecting rapid change in Cuba. My great grandfather designed the Cuban flag of independence in 1850 and his wife made this flag. When Narcisco Lopez and his irregulars took it to Cuba in 1851, they were garroted. This flag finally flew over Morro Castle in 1902.
Professor Stanley Katz returned to the Old Guard to speak on Prospects for Transition in Cuba. Professor Katz received the National Humanities Medal from President Obama in 2011 for his diverse accomplishments, which would require five minutes to describe.
One of Professor Katz’s specialties is to deal with countries with which the United States has difficult relations. In the 1980s repairing relations with Vietnam was his first such initiative. With senatorial support from McCain and Kerry, Katz was extremely successfully in establishing a flourishing bridge between the U. S. and Vietnam that resulted in a Fulbright program. After some work in Communist China, he ‘started thinking about Cuba,’ which he first visited in 1997. Though many foundations were leery of the legal implications of a Cuban association, the MacArthur and, especially, the Ford Foundation have provided long-term funding.
By 1961 Fidel Castro was clearly running a communist/socialist state. The U. S. responded with the Bay of Pigs and an economic embargo that remains the most important U. S. action against Cuba. This embargo affects the totality of U. S. relations with Cuba. Subsequently the Soviet Union propped up the Cuban economy with massive economic assistance, primarily in providing low-cost petroleum. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Cuba entered a ‘special period’—risking starvation and major personal hardship, since the island is not self-sufficient. Exports of sugar and tobacco were limited and, ironically, the largest food imports came from the United States.
In 1997, Venezuela’s Chavez commenced a major assistance program, principally with subsidized petroleum. Katz speculated that Chavez’s death could result in another Cuban ‘special situation’ with great hardship. Unlike Vietnam, China, and, partly, Russia, Fidel Castro resisted market and, especially, political reform. Raul, at 81 five years younger than his brother, has initiated a few tentative steps towards market reform. Katz believes that nothing much has happened on a scale that matters.
Katz said that Fidel, Raul, and others in senior positions are octogenarians who might feel comfortable with their compadres in the Old Guard. Over time, the Castros weeded out from their ruling elite those individuals with market and/or political reformist tendencies. The army is firmly entrenched and it is very difficult to imagine internal opposition, since Cuba’s rulers are ruthless—THESE ARE NOT NICE GUYS. Katz sees no short-term possibility of change from within. One result of the moderate ‘free market’ initiatives is the creation of a “new class” of entrepreneurs that is totally beholden to the current rulers.
U. S. policy towards Cuba is hampered by an aging Cuban exile contingent that opposes any softening of U. S.-Cuban relations. This view is supported by some members of Congress, including Senator Robert Menendez. In fact, there is a new generation of Florida Cubans who are more relaxed about this Cuban vendetta. Obama has twice won Florida. American businessmen would welcome trade with Cuba. Katz laments that Obama to date hasn’t had a cohesive policy towards Cuba.
The situation within Cuba is extremely sad. It is a poor country getting poorer. It is also a wonderful country with remarkable human resources. It has a superb basic health program (but doesn’t have high-tech equipment). Cuban doctors and nurses provide valuable hard currency by working in other countries, including Venezuela. Cuba also has free education through university, but few jobs for graduates.
Professor Katz is pessimistic about any meaningful short-term transition in Cuba. He expressed the hope that the United States could be ‘more flexible’ in its dealings with 21st century Cuba.
Respectfully submitted,
Keith Wheelock
Professor Stanley Katz returned to the Old Guard to speak on Prospects for Transition in Cuba. Professor Katz received the National Humanities Medal from President Obama in 2011 for his diverse accomplishments, which would require five minutes to describe.
One of Professor Katz’s specialties is to deal with countries with which the United States has difficult relations. In the 1980s repairing relations with Vietnam was his first such initiative. With senatorial support from McCain and Kerry, Katz was extremely successfully in establishing a flourishing bridge between the U. S. and Vietnam that resulted in a Fulbright program. After some work in Communist China, he ‘started thinking about Cuba,’ which he first visited in 1997. Though many foundations were leery of the legal implications of a Cuban association, the MacArthur and, especially, the Ford Foundation have provided long-term funding.
By 1961 Fidel Castro was clearly running a communist/socialist state. The U. S. responded with the Bay of Pigs and an economic embargo that remains the most important U. S. action against Cuba. This embargo affects the totality of U. S. relations with Cuba. Subsequently the Soviet Union propped up the Cuban economy with massive economic assistance, primarily in providing low-cost petroleum. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Cuba entered a ‘special period’—risking starvation and major personal hardship, since the island is not self-sufficient. Exports of sugar and tobacco were limited and, ironically, the largest food imports came from the United States.
In 1997, Venezuela’s Chavez commenced a major assistance program, principally with subsidized petroleum. Katz speculated that Chavez’s death could result in another Cuban ‘special situation’ with great hardship. Unlike Vietnam, China, and, partly, Russia, Fidel Castro resisted market and, especially, political reform. Raul, at 81 five years younger than his brother, has initiated a few tentative steps towards market reform. Katz believes that nothing much has happened on a scale that matters.
Katz said that Fidel, Raul, and others in senior positions are octogenarians who might feel comfortable with their compadres in the Old Guard. Over time, the Castros weeded out from their ruling elite those individuals with market and/or political reformist tendencies. The army is firmly entrenched and it is very difficult to imagine internal opposition, since Cuba’s rulers are ruthless—THESE ARE NOT NICE GUYS. Katz sees no short-term possibility of change from within. One result of the moderate ‘free market’ initiatives is the creation of a “new class” of entrepreneurs that is totally beholden to the current rulers.
U. S. policy towards Cuba is hampered by an aging Cuban exile contingent that opposes any softening of U. S.-Cuban relations. This view is supported by some members of Congress, including Senator Robert Menendez. In fact, there is a new generation of Florida Cubans who are more relaxed about this Cuban vendetta. Obama has twice won Florida. American businessmen would welcome trade with Cuba. Katz laments that Obama to date hasn’t had a cohesive policy towards Cuba.
The situation within Cuba is extremely sad. It is a poor country getting poorer. It is also a wonderful country with remarkable human resources. It has a superb basic health program (but doesn’t have high-tech equipment). Cuban doctors and nurses provide valuable hard currency by working in other countries, including Venezuela. Cuba also has free education through university, but few jobs for graduates.
Professor Katz is pessimistic about any meaningful short-term transition in Cuba. He expressed the hope that the United States could be ‘more flexible’ in its dealings with 21st century Cuba.
Respectfully submitted,
Keith Wheelock