October 1, 2008
A National Security Strategy for the New President
Robert L. Hutchings
Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton
Minutes of the Third Meeting of the 67th Year
President George Hansen opened the 3rd meeting of the 67th year at 10:15 AM.
Four guests were welcomed:
Herb Kane introduced Jack Stillman
Jim Ferry introduced Frank Curran
Rosemary O’Brien introduced Julia Coale
onas Bingaman introduced Mike Meyers
Five new members, elected the previous week, were formally inducted. They are:
Immanuel Kohn, proposed and introduced by Charles Jaffin
Bruce Schragger, proposed and introduced by Dick Hanson
Patrician Taylor, proposed and introduced by Jordan Young
David Mulford, proposed and introduced by Warren Leback
Theodore Vial, proposed by Dick Katen, introduced by Warren Leback
Minutes of the previous meeting were read by Gene Herron.
Ruth Miller introduced the speaker, Robert Hutchings, who spoke on the subject,
A National Security Strategy for the New President. Dr. Hutchings is currently diplomat in residence at Princeton University, and was earlier Assistant Dean at the Woodrow Wilson School. In government service he has been Director for European Affairs for the National Security Council and special adviser to the Secretary of State with the rank of ambassador. From 2003-2005 he was chairman of the National Intelligence Council, engaged in research on global policy agenda, in dialogue with people of influence in other countries of the world. His talk was based on this experience.
Five conditions, he said, are the focus of our concern. With an array of graphs and data on slides, he dealt with each of them in turn.
First, there is the backlash against globalization based on the unequal distribution of its benefits. Although the global economy is growing, so also is the gap between rich and poor both within and between countries. The number of the poor, especially the very poor, is growing. There is danger that they will be detached from the economy altogether. Support for the free market is eroding, as nations have to choose between competitive success in the market and social justice at home. The Doha movement toward removing trade barriers is at a standstill. The international trade and financial system is therefore fragile. 70% of capital is now in the Middle and the Far East. Politically ever more countries are becoming anocracies, a mixture that could move either way, toward democracy or toward autocracy.
Second, the fastest growing economies are China and India. China especially, leads the developing world in research and development expenditures, and is increasing its influence as far away as Brazil and Chile. Both countries are growing in population, outstripping Europe and North America. They must be brought into international agencies determining world economic policy.
Third, the growing demand for energy raises environmental and economic questions. This demand rose 34% between 1960 and 2000. It will probably rise 50% in the next two decades. China leads the rise, though it now only accounts for 8% of world energy use. Europe is heavily dependent on Russian sources. Africa is in the worst environmental condition, with its poverty and expansion of the Sahara desert. We need to bring China and India into a larger conversation about energy, economics and the environment.
Fourth, anti-American sentiment is growing in other countries, but it is primarily due to the failure of American leadership during the present administration. Most of the world still wants and needs the United States as a balance in conflict situations and as a facilitator or catalyst for the solving of common problems. They want us as partners. They do not see us as enemies.
Fifth, the western-led global order since World War II is breaking down. A new expanded system is needed. The IMF and the World Bank are losing their relevance. The UN Security Council membership doesn’t reflect the current balance of power and should be enlarged. NATO needs to become less military and to reach out to Russia with a view to its membership. So should the International Energy Agency, in search of global governance of energy policy. The U.S. and Russia should agree to reduce their nuclear arsenal to 500 weapons each. The speaker suggested that a group of 20 nations should take the leadership in seeking a global grand bargain that would enable us all to live and work together.
n short U.S. world policy should seek (a) to manage the backlash against globalization, (b) to change patterns of energy use and production, (c) to deal with world climate change, and (d) to reform international institutions to make them more inclusive and effective. All this must be done with other nations, not in isolation.
There was brief discussion. The meeting was adjourned at 10:30 AM.
Respectfully submitted.
Charles West
Four guests were welcomed:
Herb Kane introduced Jack Stillman
Jim Ferry introduced Frank Curran
Rosemary O’Brien introduced Julia Coale
onas Bingaman introduced Mike Meyers
Five new members, elected the previous week, were formally inducted. They are:
Immanuel Kohn, proposed and introduced by Charles Jaffin
Bruce Schragger, proposed and introduced by Dick Hanson
Patrician Taylor, proposed and introduced by Jordan Young
David Mulford, proposed and introduced by Warren Leback
Theodore Vial, proposed by Dick Katen, introduced by Warren Leback
Minutes of the previous meeting were read by Gene Herron.
Ruth Miller introduced the speaker, Robert Hutchings, who spoke on the subject,
A National Security Strategy for the New President. Dr. Hutchings is currently diplomat in residence at Princeton University, and was earlier Assistant Dean at the Woodrow Wilson School. In government service he has been Director for European Affairs for the National Security Council and special adviser to the Secretary of State with the rank of ambassador. From 2003-2005 he was chairman of the National Intelligence Council, engaged in research on global policy agenda, in dialogue with people of influence in other countries of the world. His talk was based on this experience.
Five conditions, he said, are the focus of our concern. With an array of graphs and data on slides, he dealt with each of them in turn.
First, there is the backlash against globalization based on the unequal distribution of its benefits. Although the global economy is growing, so also is the gap between rich and poor both within and between countries. The number of the poor, especially the very poor, is growing. There is danger that they will be detached from the economy altogether. Support for the free market is eroding, as nations have to choose between competitive success in the market and social justice at home. The Doha movement toward removing trade barriers is at a standstill. The international trade and financial system is therefore fragile. 70% of capital is now in the Middle and the Far East. Politically ever more countries are becoming anocracies, a mixture that could move either way, toward democracy or toward autocracy.
Second, the fastest growing economies are China and India. China especially, leads the developing world in research and development expenditures, and is increasing its influence as far away as Brazil and Chile. Both countries are growing in population, outstripping Europe and North America. They must be brought into international agencies determining world economic policy.
Third, the growing demand for energy raises environmental and economic questions. This demand rose 34% between 1960 and 2000. It will probably rise 50% in the next two decades. China leads the rise, though it now only accounts for 8% of world energy use. Europe is heavily dependent on Russian sources. Africa is in the worst environmental condition, with its poverty and expansion of the Sahara desert. We need to bring China and India into a larger conversation about energy, economics and the environment.
Fourth, anti-American sentiment is growing in other countries, but it is primarily due to the failure of American leadership during the present administration. Most of the world still wants and needs the United States as a balance in conflict situations and as a facilitator or catalyst for the solving of common problems. They want us as partners. They do not see us as enemies.
Fifth, the western-led global order since World War II is breaking down. A new expanded system is needed. The IMF and the World Bank are losing their relevance. The UN Security Council membership doesn’t reflect the current balance of power and should be enlarged. NATO needs to become less military and to reach out to Russia with a view to its membership. So should the International Energy Agency, in search of global governance of energy policy. The U.S. and Russia should agree to reduce their nuclear arsenal to 500 weapons each. The speaker suggested that a group of 20 nations should take the leadership in seeking a global grand bargain that would enable us all to live and work together.
n short U.S. world policy should seek (a) to manage the backlash against globalization, (b) to change patterns of energy use and production, (c) to deal with world climate change, and (d) to reform international institutions to make them more inclusive and effective. All this must be done with other nations, not in isolation.
There was brief discussion. The meeting was adjourned at 10:30 AM.
Respectfully submitted.
Charles West