November 10, 2010
The Primary International Security Challenges – Afghanistan, etc.
Wolfgang F. Danspeckgruber
Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University
Minutes of the Ninth Meeting of the 69th Year
Robert D. Varrin, President, Presiding
Invocation by Don Edwards
Last week's minutes read by John Lasley
John Frederick introduced his guest, Genevieve Munson
Professor Danspeckgruber introduced a colleague, Ms Lachlyn Soper, MPA, a Woodrow Wilson graduate, who now advises senior American military officers on civil-military relations.
Jack Reilly, Membership Chairman, called members attention to the envelopes at each chair containing information about prospective members to be voted on at the next meeting. He also announced the nomination of three emeritus members, Andre Yokana, Betsy Smith and Harry Hoffman.
Attendance at the meeting was recorded as 109
Henry King introduced the speaker, Professor Wolfgang F. Danspeckgruber who has been at the Woodrow Wilson School in Princeton since 1988. Judging from the biographic information provided by Mr. Campbell, and comments Professor Danspeckgruber made during his talk, he has been a participant in many of the major strategic negotiations in Eastern and Western Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia over the last twenty plus years.
Professor Danspeckgruber's topic was "The Primary International Security Challenges: Afghanistan, etc."
He described Afghanistan as a country in various stages of occupation, crisis, civil war, and conflict since 1979, with tribal wars during the Mujaheedin, warfare among different ethnic clans, often far worse than the Soviet invasion. For that reason after the internecine warfare some Afghans actually welcomed the Taliban who brought about some stability - though at the expense of human rights and rights for the women. The US/NATO intervention in Afghanistan, while originally welcomed, has not yet brought about the desired positive effects on governance, security and development - in spite
of some considerable progress since 2001. It has certainly also affected Afghan relations with neighboring states on all sides.
Afghanistan is a country rich in natural resources, including copper, gold, lapislazuli and all kind of ferro magnetic resources as well as uranium in Helmand province. While ISAF has built several thousand miles of roads, Afghanistan, a highly mountainous country, where only some 20% are arable, is the world's 5th poorest country that lacks infrastructure, and has no railroads - all important for its peaceful development.
The region is in a perpetual state of crisis. Afghanistan borders on six countries, Iran, Pakistan, China and three former Soviet states, and is subject to great interest from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other states in the region. The border with Pakistan is a no man's land, and a staging ground for the Taliban (in both directions). Concerning Iran, Turkey dropped all visa requirements and its border is open. Millions of Turks vacation in Iran, millions of Iranians visit Turkey and do business there (which obviously affects international sanctions). Afghanistan's border with Iran is 800 miles long where thousands of Iranian border guards have been killed by those who try to smuggle drugs and conduct other illegal operations. Obviously, the Iran/Afghanistan relationship is also of interest to strategic observers in Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Professor Danspeckgruber called special attention to the "triangle" Pakistani/Afghanistan/India, where any activity by one state invites a reaction by the other two - this is important for the conduct of US policy and strategy in the region.
He felt that there was nevertheless some good news in from Afghanistan: He cited the fact that 80% of all Afghans now have access to at least some medical treatment. Six million students, including girls, are now going to school. Eight million have cell phones, and many have computers. Women can have careers -- there is a woman deputy speaker in parliament, and a woman deputy health minister. Yet there still is 70% unemployment and illiteracy.
For the first time in the history the United States now has a physical presence in what used to be Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and also British areas of influence.
What are our enemies: TIME and FATIGUE. We Americans are always in a hurry. Our youngest generation has always lived during a period of wars. This is the longest war in our history. Nonetheless, Professor Danspeckgruber stressed, we must be determined to stay and have the will to win. We must win the hearts and minds of the Afghan people, who want peace, stability and tranquility. We must act and behave like a great power, according our own principles.
Paul B. Mott Jr.
Minutes Taker
Invocation by Don Edwards
Last week's minutes read by John Lasley
John Frederick introduced his guest, Genevieve Munson
Professor Danspeckgruber introduced a colleague, Ms Lachlyn Soper, MPA, a Woodrow Wilson graduate, who now advises senior American military officers on civil-military relations.
Jack Reilly, Membership Chairman, called members attention to the envelopes at each chair containing information about prospective members to be voted on at the next meeting. He also announced the nomination of three emeritus members, Andre Yokana, Betsy Smith and Harry Hoffman.
Attendance at the meeting was recorded as 109
Henry King introduced the speaker, Professor Wolfgang F. Danspeckgruber who has been at the Woodrow Wilson School in Princeton since 1988. Judging from the biographic information provided by Mr. Campbell, and comments Professor Danspeckgruber made during his talk, he has been a participant in many of the major strategic negotiations in Eastern and Western Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia over the last twenty plus years.
Professor Danspeckgruber's topic was "The Primary International Security Challenges: Afghanistan, etc."
He described Afghanistan as a country in various stages of occupation, crisis, civil war, and conflict since 1979, with tribal wars during the Mujaheedin, warfare among different ethnic clans, often far worse than the Soviet invasion. For that reason after the internecine warfare some Afghans actually welcomed the Taliban who brought about some stability - though at the expense of human rights and rights for the women. The US/NATO intervention in Afghanistan, while originally welcomed, has not yet brought about the desired positive effects on governance, security and development - in spite
of some considerable progress since 2001. It has certainly also affected Afghan relations with neighboring states on all sides.
Afghanistan is a country rich in natural resources, including copper, gold, lapislazuli and all kind of ferro magnetic resources as well as uranium in Helmand province. While ISAF has built several thousand miles of roads, Afghanistan, a highly mountainous country, where only some 20% are arable, is the world's 5th poorest country that lacks infrastructure, and has no railroads - all important for its peaceful development.
The region is in a perpetual state of crisis. Afghanistan borders on six countries, Iran, Pakistan, China and three former Soviet states, and is subject to great interest from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other states in the region. The border with Pakistan is a no man's land, and a staging ground for the Taliban (in both directions). Concerning Iran, Turkey dropped all visa requirements and its border is open. Millions of Turks vacation in Iran, millions of Iranians visit Turkey and do business there (which obviously affects international sanctions). Afghanistan's border with Iran is 800 miles long where thousands of Iranian border guards have been killed by those who try to smuggle drugs and conduct other illegal operations. Obviously, the Iran/Afghanistan relationship is also of interest to strategic observers in Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Professor Danspeckgruber called special attention to the "triangle" Pakistani/Afghanistan/India, where any activity by one state invites a reaction by the other two - this is important for the conduct of US policy and strategy in the region.
He felt that there was nevertheless some good news in from Afghanistan: He cited the fact that 80% of all Afghans now have access to at least some medical treatment. Six million students, including girls, are now going to school. Eight million have cell phones, and many have computers. Women can have careers -- there is a woman deputy speaker in parliament, and a woman deputy health minister. Yet there still is 70% unemployment and illiteracy.
For the first time in the history the United States now has a physical presence in what used to be Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and also British areas of influence.
What are our enemies: TIME and FATIGUE. We Americans are always in a hurry. Our youngest generation has always lived during a period of wars. This is the longest war in our history. Nonetheless, Professor Danspeckgruber stressed, we must be determined to stay and have the will to win. We must win the hearts and minds of the Afghan people, who want peace, stability and tranquility. We must act and behave like a great power, according our own principles.
Paul B. Mott Jr.
Minutes Taker