November 5, 2014
First Look Back at Yesterday's Elections
Brandice Canes-Wrone
2013-14, Member of the Institute for Advanced Study
Donald E. Stokes Professor of Public and International Affairs, Princeton
First Look Back at Yesterday's Elections
Brandice Canes-Wrone
2013-14, Member of the Institute for Advanced Study
Donald E. Stokes Professor of Public and International Affairs, Princeton
Brandid Canes-Wrone, Speaker, and Ruth Miller, Introducer
Minutes of the Ninth Meeting of the 73rd Year
The ninth meeting of The Old Guard of Princeton in its 73rd year was called to order at 10:15. The Invocation was led by Julia Coale. The Minutes of the October 29th meeting were read by David Rosenfeld. Guests included Cindy Clark, wife of Charles Clark and Bill Schaeffer, friend of Guy Woelk.
112 members were present.
The President announced that a mailing would go out soon to members, listing Membership candidates and their bios. Citing the Old Guard’s interest in reducing printing and postage costs, he urged members to open this communication and read it. He also asked any who had changes in their personal emails to let Membership Chair Ed Weiss know.
He reminded the less than 20 members with outstanding dues to step up to the plate and pay. Charlie Clark was standing by to accept checks.
In view of a speaker’s recent dizziness, an EMS plan has been put in place. Dr. Charles Rojer and Dr. Charles Clark will be first and second attending physicians, prepared to deal with any medical emergencies during future meetings. In case of such an emergency, the attending physician will determine appropriate response and the need if any to call 911.
Next week’s meeting will begin at 10:15 in the Multi-Purpose Room at the Carl Fields Center. The speaker will be Eliot Daley whose presentation will be on Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood: Why Did It Work and What Was Fred Really Like?
Ruth Miller introduced the speaker, Brandice Canes-Wrone. A member of Princeton’s class of 1993, she received a PhD from Stanford Business School and is currently Donald E. Stokes Professor of Public and International Affairs at Princeton.
Professor Canes-Wrone confessed that rather than do an all-nighter, she had written a sizeable chunk of her presentation before the election results were in. She therefore apologized for changing the title of her 2014 Midterm Election talk to “Continuity and Change,” a title she characterized as “safe.”
Speaking of continuity, she described three Fundamentals which influenced the midterm vote:
Canes-Wrone then shifted her focus from Continuity to elements of Change.
Immigration. It is unlikely that a successor would take away green cards, so Obama might be right to use his Executive Order option in this arena.
Environmental Action. This one is complicated. Many Democrats are in oil states, fracking states, etc. This is not a clear party issue.
Courts Judicial vacancies. 10% of the District Court positions are not filled. Look for Obama to nominate as many judges as he can.
More regulatory oversight. The Republicans will work to limit the influence of regulatory agencies.
In answers to a number of questions, Canes-Wrone said
1) she didn’t think good campaigners won elections but bad campaigners could lose them; Republicans winnowed out candidates early who might slip up; Democrats did not;
2) name recognition and legacy clearly were not always predictors of victory;
3) Citizens United ruling will not have a large effect on elections but may have an impact on policy;
4) she is optimistic about finding a way to address the gap between the rich and the poor, but acknowledges it is a real challenge - globalization has many benefits but it has also cost many jobs;
5) she doesn’t think a change in term lengths for Representatives would change their focus on fund raising or enhance their legislative activity;
6) The RDI has not kept pace with other economic indicators because of ongoing corporate capitalization, skittishness of employers resulting in a reluctance to hire and increasing healthcare costs, and
7) voter IDs will prevent a small percentage of people who vote today but are not entitled to vote from doing so, i.e., ex-felons and immigrants who get drivers licenses accompanied by voter registration forms.
Respectfully submitted,
Julie Denny
112 members were present.
The President announced that a mailing would go out soon to members, listing Membership candidates and their bios. Citing the Old Guard’s interest in reducing printing and postage costs, he urged members to open this communication and read it. He also asked any who had changes in their personal emails to let Membership Chair Ed Weiss know.
He reminded the less than 20 members with outstanding dues to step up to the plate and pay. Charlie Clark was standing by to accept checks.
In view of a speaker’s recent dizziness, an EMS plan has been put in place. Dr. Charles Rojer and Dr. Charles Clark will be first and second attending physicians, prepared to deal with any medical emergencies during future meetings. In case of such an emergency, the attending physician will determine appropriate response and the need if any to call 911.
Next week’s meeting will begin at 10:15 in the Multi-Purpose Room at the Carl Fields Center. The speaker will be Eliot Daley whose presentation will be on Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood: Why Did It Work and What Was Fred Really Like?
Ruth Miller introduced the speaker, Brandice Canes-Wrone. A member of Princeton’s class of 1993, she received a PhD from Stanford Business School and is currently Donald E. Stokes Professor of Public and International Affairs at Princeton.
Professor Canes-Wrone confessed that rather than do an all-nighter, she had written a sizeable chunk of her presentation before the election results were in. She therefore apologized for changing the title of her 2014 Midterm Election talk to “Continuity and Change,” a title she characterized as “safe.”
Speaking of continuity, she described three Fundamentals which influenced the midterm vote:
- Real Disposable Income - While other economic indicators such as GDP growth, regular unemployment and broader under-employment were reasonably healthy, the 2014 RDI ranked second to last according to data collected over the last 50 years. Looking at the data on election Eve, her comment to a colleague was, “Wow. It looks like the Democrats are going to get clobbered.”
- Presidential Approval - Presidential approval rating is generally lower at midterms but at 40%, Obama’s rating was the third lowest since the 1960s.
- Campaign Finance - In anticipation of possible Old Guard skepticism, Canes-Wrone cited data from Opensecrets.org, an allegedly objective source. Democrats spent more than Republicans. PACS tend to support incumbents early until they perceive the pendulum swinging. When the polls began to shift, then PAC money shifted. So-called independent spending, accounted for 13% in this election, compared with 9% in 2012. Canes-Wrone felt the independent funding was not as significant as the combination of fundamentals. The context of RDI and Presidential Approval influence the impact of spending.
Canes-Wrone then shifted her focus from Continuity to elements of Change.
- Population demographic shifts - The Hispanic population will definitely play a bigger role in future but what that means in terms of party loyalty is not clear. After 2013 promise of immigration reform, there was a 25% differential between the national and Hispanic Obama approval rating. Now it’s only 10%. But Ronald Reagan instituted an Immigration act with no Hispanic shift. Also Democrats are trying to create an Hispanic identity in a group that is not homogeneous. African Americans are holding steady at 80% approval ratings. Republicans are reaching out to both groups. In the New Mexico gubernatorial race the Hispanic Republican candidate won in a traditionally Democratic state. And of course there is Ted Cruz.
- The Election Polls Many polls were dramatically wrong. There are a number of reasons for this: Many voters decide at the last minute; Others are so weary of polls they refuse to respond; No one answers their phones any more; Many pollsters do not bother in certain states where they think the outcome is guaranteed; Demographics are shifting and turnout is difficult to predict. The big question in reading polls is how does the population of people who responded compare to the population of people who actually voted? There was no innate enthusiasm in this election. Canes-Wrone asked her class. “So who is voting today? Is anyone campaigning?” and got the response, “Oh. Is there an election?” One person was going to vote because his mother was running for the school board. “So I voted for her and then for everyone.”
- Policy Implications: There will be a lot of blame game politics. Republicans aren’t going to sit there and do nothing. They’re going to send up legislation and force Obama to veto. The President has an incentive to compromise. Executive orders can be vetoed by successor. He’s better off working with Congress if he can. And there are opportunities for compromise, including Tax Reform and Criminal Justice Reform.
Immigration. It is unlikely that a successor would take away green cards, so Obama might be right to use his Executive Order option in this arena.
Environmental Action. This one is complicated. Many Democrats are in oil states, fracking states, etc. This is not a clear party issue.
Courts Judicial vacancies. 10% of the District Court positions are not filled. Look for Obama to nominate as many judges as he can.
More regulatory oversight. The Republicans will work to limit the influence of regulatory agencies.
In answers to a number of questions, Canes-Wrone said
1) she didn’t think good campaigners won elections but bad campaigners could lose them; Republicans winnowed out candidates early who might slip up; Democrats did not;
2) name recognition and legacy clearly were not always predictors of victory;
3) Citizens United ruling will not have a large effect on elections but may have an impact on policy;
4) she is optimistic about finding a way to address the gap between the rich and the poor, but acknowledges it is a real challenge - globalization has many benefits but it has also cost many jobs;
5) she doesn’t think a change in term lengths for Representatives would change their focus on fund raising or enhance their legislative activity;
6) The RDI has not kept pace with other economic indicators because of ongoing corporate capitalization, skittishness of employers resulting in a reluctance to hire and increasing healthcare costs, and
7) voter IDs will prevent a small percentage of people who vote today but are not entitled to vote from doing so, i.e., ex-felons and immigrants who get drivers licenses accompanied by voter registration forms.
Respectfully submitted,
Julie Denny