December 1, 2010
Whither Egypt: Regime Change or Status Quo?
Robert Tignor
Rosengarten Professor of Modern & Contemporary History Emeritus, Princeton University
Minutes of the 11th Meeting of the 69th Year
President Robert Varin called the 11th meeting of the 69th year to order at 10:15 AM. Tom Fulmer led the invocation. Tricia Marks read the minutes of the previous meeting. The guest and introducers were: Susan Hockabay Jones [Joan Fleming], Jo Johnson [Al Kremmerlen} and Cindy Clark [Charles Clark]. Jack Reilly, chairman of the membership committee, welcomed seven new members: Guy Woelk, Anton Lahnston, Marguarite D’Amico, Nancy Beck, Judith Applegate, John Heins and Robert Kuser.
The next meeting will be December 8th at the Carl Fields Center. The speaker will be John Bogle; founder of Vanguard Fund and his topic is “Another Look at the Financial World”.
Jim Johnson introduced the speaker, Robert Tignor whose topic was “Whither Egypt: Regime Change or Status Quo?” The speaker graduated Phi Beta Kappa from College of Wooster and obtained his MA and PhD from Yale. He is Professor Emeritus and the Rosengarten Professor of Modern and Contemporary History at Princeton University. He has taught courses in African history and world history and written extensively on the history of twentieth century Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya.
He started by stating he would get our blood boiling which he did over the next 45 minutes. It was a coincidence that the lower house of the parliament had elections three days before his talk. Before the election the radical Muslin Brotherhood had 88 seats and after the recent elections they appear to have none. There is strong suspicion of fraud and irregularities in the elections. Egypt is important because of its location and vital role in international affairs.
Since 1952, there have been three dictators in power. In 1952 Gamal Nasser, seized power from a corrupt King Farouk. Nasser was controversial but did many good things for Egypt. He initiated land reform. He nationalized the Suez Canal Company, which is an Egyptian company, in 1956 as a means to raise money from tolls to help build the High Aswan Dam. In response, Israel invaded Egypt and England demanded that Egypt withdraw to the west of the Suez Canal. Eisenhower and the United States demanded that Israel withdraw and this was a political triumph for Nasser.
Things fell apart for Nasser in the 1960s. He sent his best troops to fight in Yemen and in 1967 he had the UN troops withdraw from Gaza and Sinai. When Nasser blockaded Israeli ships from delivering oil from Iran, Israel attacked in June 1967. Eighty percent of Egyptian planes were destroyed and in three days Israel captured Gaza and Sinai. At this time Nasser’s best troops were still in Yemen. In September 1970, Nasser, who had diabetes and was a heavy smoker, died suddenly.
Anwar Sadat was vice president and became the leader after Nasser’s death. He was considered a lightweight but he quickly got rid of his opponents. In 1973 along with Syria he made a surprise attack on Israel and was able to get his tanks on the east side of the Suez Canal. The United States supplied and supported Israel and Russia supplied and supported Egypt. The Egyptian troops were eventually surrounded by Israeli troops that cut off all Egyptian supplies. A peace accord was eventually made in which the Egyptian troops were freed and control of the Suez Canal was given back to Egypt.
In 1979 a peace accord with Israel was signed and Sadat received the Nobel Peace Prize. He was held in high esteem by other countries but not in Egypt. When he was assassinated in 1981 Egypt was not in mourning as they were with Nasser’s death.
Murbarak was vice president and he assumed power in 1981 as an unknown entity. He developed close ties with the United States and sent troops in the Desert Storm War with Iraq. Egypt has been in a state of emergency since 1981, which allows the government to arrest and detain whoever they want. Murbarak is the third successive dictator and opposition candidates who are very diverse, have very little chance of running. The main challenger to Mubarak in the last presidential election was Nur who was imprisoned after being charge with forging signatures on petitions. The National Democratic Party is in power and is very unlikely to be displaced. The presidential election will take place next year and there is no candidate as yet for the National Democratic Party. Mabarak is 81 years old and appears to be in poor health. He has never named a vice president so if he dies, there is no one appointed to replace him. The speaker feels he will run again next year although someone in the military could be a candidate. Mubarak’s son, Gamal, also could be a candidate but the speaker felt this is unlikely. He feels the National Democratic Party will survive.
Dictatorships often run out of steam. Some disappear peacefully such as Spain and others with turmoil such as Iraq and Yugoslavia.
Several questions followed the talk.
Respectively submitted:
Charles G. Clark
The next meeting will be December 8th at the Carl Fields Center. The speaker will be John Bogle; founder of Vanguard Fund and his topic is “Another Look at the Financial World”.
Jim Johnson introduced the speaker, Robert Tignor whose topic was “Whither Egypt: Regime Change or Status Quo?” The speaker graduated Phi Beta Kappa from College of Wooster and obtained his MA and PhD from Yale. He is Professor Emeritus and the Rosengarten Professor of Modern and Contemporary History at Princeton University. He has taught courses in African history and world history and written extensively on the history of twentieth century Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya.
He started by stating he would get our blood boiling which he did over the next 45 minutes. It was a coincidence that the lower house of the parliament had elections three days before his talk. Before the election the radical Muslin Brotherhood had 88 seats and after the recent elections they appear to have none. There is strong suspicion of fraud and irregularities in the elections. Egypt is important because of its location and vital role in international affairs.
Since 1952, there have been three dictators in power. In 1952 Gamal Nasser, seized power from a corrupt King Farouk. Nasser was controversial but did many good things for Egypt. He initiated land reform. He nationalized the Suez Canal Company, which is an Egyptian company, in 1956 as a means to raise money from tolls to help build the High Aswan Dam. In response, Israel invaded Egypt and England demanded that Egypt withdraw to the west of the Suez Canal. Eisenhower and the United States demanded that Israel withdraw and this was a political triumph for Nasser.
Things fell apart for Nasser in the 1960s. He sent his best troops to fight in Yemen and in 1967 he had the UN troops withdraw from Gaza and Sinai. When Nasser blockaded Israeli ships from delivering oil from Iran, Israel attacked in June 1967. Eighty percent of Egyptian planes were destroyed and in three days Israel captured Gaza and Sinai. At this time Nasser’s best troops were still in Yemen. In September 1970, Nasser, who had diabetes and was a heavy smoker, died suddenly.
Anwar Sadat was vice president and became the leader after Nasser’s death. He was considered a lightweight but he quickly got rid of his opponents. In 1973 along with Syria he made a surprise attack on Israel and was able to get his tanks on the east side of the Suez Canal. The United States supplied and supported Israel and Russia supplied and supported Egypt. The Egyptian troops were eventually surrounded by Israeli troops that cut off all Egyptian supplies. A peace accord was eventually made in which the Egyptian troops were freed and control of the Suez Canal was given back to Egypt.
In 1979 a peace accord with Israel was signed and Sadat received the Nobel Peace Prize. He was held in high esteem by other countries but not in Egypt. When he was assassinated in 1981 Egypt was not in mourning as they were with Nasser’s death.
Murbarak was vice president and he assumed power in 1981 as an unknown entity. He developed close ties with the United States and sent troops in the Desert Storm War with Iraq. Egypt has been in a state of emergency since 1981, which allows the government to arrest and detain whoever they want. Murbarak is the third successive dictator and opposition candidates who are very diverse, have very little chance of running. The main challenger to Mubarak in the last presidential election was Nur who was imprisoned after being charge with forging signatures on petitions. The National Democratic Party is in power and is very unlikely to be displaced. The presidential election will take place next year and there is no candidate as yet for the National Democratic Party. Mabarak is 81 years old and appears to be in poor health. He has never named a vice president so if he dies, there is no one appointed to replace him. The speaker feels he will run again next year although someone in the military could be a candidate. Mubarak’s son, Gamal, also could be a candidate but the speaker felt this is unlikely. He feels the National Democratic Party will survive.
Dictatorships often run out of steam. Some disappear peacefully such as Spain and others with turmoil such as Iraq and Yugoslavia.
Several questions followed the talk.
Respectively submitted:
Charles G. Clark