December 2, 2009
America's Energy Future
Harold Shapiro
President Emeritus, Princeton University
Minutes of the 11th Meeting of the 68th Year
President George Hansen called to order the 11th meeting of the 68th year at 10:15 AM at Friend Center, following the hospitality hour at 9:30. Don Edwards led the invocation.. Charlie Clark read the minutes of the previous meeting. Jack Reilly requested any changes/corrections for the next membership directory. Notice was given of the changed program for Dec. 16: John Burkhalter and Donovan Klotzbeacher will give a musical presentation titled “Handel and Herr Telemann, two old friends”. Members were reminded of the snow policy available on the reverse of the program. The next meeting was announced: Melanie Clark and Rossen Milanov, Princeton Symphony Orchestra, will speak on “Behind the scenes at the Princeton Symphony.”
The speaker of the day was Harold Shapiro, and the topic “America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation.” In the introduction Scott McVay noted the timeliness of the talk, just a week before the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. Dr. Shapiro is President Emeritus and Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University. He recently chaired a high level study on America’s energy future, sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences and the National Research Council, and the talk presented the findings and conclusions of that study.
The study addressed issues in the production and consumption of energy in the U.S. related to the environment, national security and economic competitiveness. High among environmental concerns is global warming. The speaker’s view is that while increased global warming due to human activity is not 100% certain, the evidence supporting it is almost overwhelming. Important national security concerns include the very vulnerable supply chain of petroleum from the middle east.
Dr. Shapiro summarized where we are now as follows.
The global conclusion of the study is that “The nation must embark on a sustained effort to transform the manner in which we produce and consume energy.” Dr. Shapiro emphasized that we can’t deal with these issues in 10 years no matter what we do.
It will require a sustained effort over a long period of time, say 30 years, and he made the analogy with the building of the national highway system.
The study focused on options based on well understood and emerging technologies, things that could be done if we really wanted to, but without changing our lifestyle. As an example of the potential of smart grids he cited a Palo Alto resident with solar panels. He leaves his house in the morning, shuts off all the air conditioning, generates solar power all day long, sells it at high prices into the California grid, comes home at night, turns everthing on, and buys the energy back at low prices.
Here are the principal findings of the study, which were presented along with extensive data.
Respectfully submitted,
Joe Giordmaine
The speaker of the day was Harold Shapiro, and the topic “America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation.” In the introduction Scott McVay noted the timeliness of the talk, just a week before the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. Dr. Shapiro is President Emeritus and Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University. He recently chaired a high level study on America’s energy future, sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences and the National Research Council, and the talk presented the findings and conclusions of that study.
The study addressed issues in the production and consumption of energy in the U.S. related to the environment, national security and economic competitiveness. High among environmental concerns is global warming. The speaker’s view is that while increased global warming due to human activity is not 100% certain, the evidence supporting it is almost overwhelming. Important national security concerns include the very vulnerable supply chain of petroleum from the middle east.
Dr. Shapiro summarized where we are now as follows.
- The US is a large and very inefficient user of energy. Our energy consumption per capita is about twice that of the EU or Japan.
- 85% of our energy is fossil fuel based, and our greenhouse gas emissions have grown by 18% in the last 20 years
- Much of the infrastructure supporting the energy sector is old, e.g. median age of our coal plants is over 43 years
- The transportation sector remains almost fully dependent on petroleum and is increasingly dependent on imports.
The global conclusion of the study is that “The nation must embark on a sustained effort to transform the manner in which we produce and consume energy.” Dr. Shapiro emphasized that we can’t deal with these issues in 10 years no matter what we do.
It will require a sustained effort over a long period of time, say 30 years, and he made the analogy with the building of the national highway system.
The study focused on options based on well understood and emerging technologies, things that could be done if we really wanted to, but without changing our lifestyle. As an example of the potential of smart grids he cited a Palo Alto resident with solar panels. He leaves his house in the morning, shuts off all the air conditioning, generates solar power all day long, sells it at high prices into the California grid, comes home at night, turns everthing on, and buys the energy back at low prices.
Here are the principal findings of the study, which were presented along with extensive data.
- There are a number of technological paths available to transform the energy sector. So much for the good news.
- It will take a sustained effort, say over a generation, by the public and private sector to achieve the necessary change.
- The deployment of existing energy efficient technologies is the nearest-term and lowest-cost option for moderating our energy demand; we could lower electricity use in the country by 1/3 in 20 years largely through energy efficiency in building codes and smaller cars
- Promising options for new supplies of electricity are renewables (wind, solar, geothermal, hydro), coal and natural gas (if carbon capture and sequestration can be solved), and, to a modest extent, nuclear
- Expansion and modernization of the present patchwork power grid are needed to reduce vulnerability, accommodate new energy sources, and enable regulation of demand.
- For the next decade petroleum will remain essential in the transportation sector
- It is critical to demonstrate carbon capture and sequestration and nuclear, and to consider increased production of natural gas
- Additional R&D and demonstration are necessary. Learning new technologies takes time.
- There are many barriers to implementing these technologies, e.g. policies and regulations, human resources, fractured governance, and investment capital.
Respectfully submitted,
Joe Giordmaine