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the old guard of princeton

February 15, 2006

Egypt in the New Millenium

Robert Tignor
Professor of Modern and Contemporary History, Princeton University

Minutes of the 20th Meeting of the 64th Year

The meeting was opened by President Haynes at 10:13 AM, with about 100 members in attendance. The invocation was led by John Marks. There were no minutes from the last meeting. Mellick Belshaw introduced his wife of 50 years as a visitor. Don Young has become emeritus.

Jim Johnson introduced the speaker, Robert Tignor, Princeton Professor of Modern and Contemporary History who spoke on Egypt in the New Millennium. Dr Tignor's presentation was excellent, the material well organized and pertinent, and the presentation spiced with occasional amusing asides. Your secretary’s only problem was that the speaker paced as he talked, giving the feeling of watching a tennis match.

Tignor made clear that Egypt, while not in the news like Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and Israel, is an Islamic country crucial to the future direction of the region. It has strong ties to NE Africa, SW Asia and Europe; is rather more advanced and sophisticated than most other middle-eastern countries; has 80M people and is centrally located. Its history contributes. With Mesopotamia, it is the cradle of civilization. It had one of the earliest Christian populations, and is the birthplace of the monastic movement. First the French under Napoleon, then the English from 1882 to 1956 controlled the country. They have fought 3 wars with Israel and lost them all. Under Nasser, they went thru a Russian phase, which was reoriented under Sadat to a loose and not necessarily warm cooperation with the US, which continues today under Mubarak. They have a peace treaty with Israel, though chilly relations.

Egypt's orientation toward the US and tolerance of Israel clearly have marked Egypt for severe enmity by the other middle eastern nations, and while Mubarak seems to be still in firm control, the most recent elections clearly confirm a stong radical Islamic current among the population. Compounding this is the extraordinary mis-distribution of wealth between the haves and have-­nots which has only appeared to worsen under Mubarak's 30-year reign. Egypt is one of the world’s 4 worst countries with this problem. It is truly a mix of 1st and 3rd world environments, cheek and jowl in a densely populated area. The risk to stability is obvious.

Tignor admitted that historians’ projections into the future are not as reliable as their evaluation of the past, but offered his assessment of the next ten years. He sees Mubarak as likely to serve a 5th term, with some, but perhaps minor risk that he will try to arrange a succession by his son, a sequence which Tignor felt would be extremely unpopular. There is some evidence of more pragmatic economic thinking in the newest government, but little change in other departments. The strong showing of the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to continue, especially with the decision to delay promised elections two years. However, Tignor felt that the extreme Islamic faction of the Brotherhood was small, and would not dominate Egypt. Mubarak's military control is absolute. His riot police are fearsome, loyal and everywhere in large numbers. The military is competent and also appears loyal. All told, Tignor projects more of the same. 

The interest was shown by the 16 questions he answered, and the several more hands in the air when President Haynes closed the meeting at 11:30.

Respectfully submitted,
John Rassweiler

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