March 10, 2010
The 2010 Census: Counting America, One by One
James Hughes
Dean, Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers
Minutes of the 23rd Meeting of the 68th Year
The 23rd meeting of the 68th year of The Old Guard of Princeton was called to order at 10:15 a.m. on March 10, 2010 by Presiding Officer George Hanson. The Invocation was led by George Cody. Mr. Cody also read the minutes from the March 3, 2010 meeting. Member Bob Waltman introduced his guest, DiDi Waltman. Ninety members were in attendance.
Next week, March 17, 2010 begins the Spring Program beginning with Eric Hagestad from Bristol Myers Squibb on “Developing Trends in BioPharmaceuticals including Alzheimer’s Disease.” The meeting will be held at the New Fields Center. Minute Taker is Julia Coale.
Jane DeLung introduced the speaker James Hughes, Dean of the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, whose topic was “The 2010 Census: Counting America One by One. Ms. DeLung reviewed the 2010 Census form and spoke about the uses of the Census.
Dr. Hughes has been the Dean of the Bloustein School since 1995 and has been active in New Jersey and regional demography and economic matters for a long period before and since his deanship, with a specialty in housing and employment matters. His subject is “What the Census will Tell Us about New Jersey”.
The 2010 Census is the 23rd since 1790 and counts residents in the United States. The purposes of the Census are
Long Wave Trends
(1) Advanced Middle Aged Spread and its Tidal Waves: baby Boomers born between 1946 and 1964 are now between 46 and 64 years old and will be turning 65 starting in 2011 until 2029. One out of four NJ residents is a Boomer and one out of three adults in NJ is a Boomer. The NJ labor force will have to be replaced and retooled in that time. This will be difficult.
(2) Dynamics of Shrinkage: 1965 baby bust lasting until 1976 – Generation X is a moving indentation in our US demography. Gen X is 45 to 55 years old now, a small group that will result in a surplus of Boomer McMansions.
(3) Advancing Growth Echo: Generation Y, Boomers’ children, also called the Ritalin Generation, born from 1977 until 1995, just short of Boomers in number, are 15 to 33 years old now. Gen Y is entering the labor force in severe economic times. The US is in a deep economic hole, as follows:
(4) Recession and Employment Losses:
The current recession is the longest since WWII. The US now has positive growth but cumulative employment losses in 2008 and 2009 are 8,518,000 jobs. Things are getting worse slower now. 2000 to 2010 is a Lost Economic Decade with private sector jobs declining by 2.7%, the first decline in jobs since the 1930’s.
The job deficit is unprecedented. The job deficit is estimated at 11,100,000 jobs, by adding to the 8.5 million jobs lost the 2.6 new workers joining the labor force since 2008
It will take until summer 2017 to bring the job market into equilibrium, based on the assumptions that 1.3 million new workers enter the job market each year, job creation will be 2.6 million per year (a very optimistic projection), leaving a surplus of jobs per year of 1.3 million. At this rate of job creation the job deficit should be erased by summer 2017.
Persons entering the job market in these conditions will find their career starts delayed and their career trajectories seriously affected.
(5) Increased Diversification of Population: 26% of the NJ labor force is foreign born, 1.7 million people. From 2000-2008 Asian and Hispanic populations in NJ increased dramatically, and in 20 years non Hispanic whites will be a minority of the NJ population.
(6) Dual Migration: NJ added 293,361 people between 2000 and 2009. Domestic migration yielded a net loss of 459,803 persons while international migration yielded a net gain of 399,803 persons for a net loss from migration of 60,000 persons during that period. Births, however, yielded a net increase of population of 374,414. The loss from domestic migration is the 5th largest in the US.
Dr. Hughes’ forecasts:
Respectfully submitted
Julia Bowers Coale
Next week, March 17, 2010 begins the Spring Program beginning with Eric Hagestad from Bristol Myers Squibb on “Developing Trends in BioPharmaceuticals including Alzheimer’s Disease.” The meeting will be held at the New Fields Center. Minute Taker is Julia Coale.
Jane DeLung introduced the speaker James Hughes, Dean of the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, whose topic was “The 2010 Census: Counting America One by One. Ms. DeLung reviewed the 2010 Census form and spoke about the uses of the Census.
Dr. Hughes has been the Dean of the Bloustein School since 1995 and has been active in New Jersey and regional demography and economic matters for a long period before and since his deanship, with a specialty in housing and employment matters. His subject is “What the Census will Tell Us about New Jersey”.
The 2010 Census is the 23rd since 1790 and counts residents in the United States. The purposes of the Census are
- Apportionment for the House of Representatives. NJ will most likely lose another House seat and have a delegation limited to 12 House members. NJ growth has been 3.5% in this decade, vs. 9.1% growth nationwide.
- Redistricting within the State for the House of Representatives and the NJ General Assembly, and
- Allocation of public services and distribution of Federal moneys of $400-500 Billion.
- 2d highest median income, after Maryland, 35% higher than US average
- 2d highest in housing costs, 56% higher than US average
- 3d highest in foreign born residents - 19.8%, 12.5% US average
- 3d highest in mass transit use behind NY and Maryland
- 1st in population density since 1970; `1174 persons per square mile yielding a deep and potent consumer market
- More forests than Cal. Or Alaska and more horses per capital than other states
Long Wave Trends
(1) Advanced Middle Aged Spread and its Tidal Waves: baby Boomers born between 1946 and 1964 are now between 46 and 64 years old and will be turning 65 starting in 2011 until 2029. One out of four NJ residents is a Boomer and one out of three adults in NJ is a Boomer. The NJ labor force will have to be replaced and retooled in that time. This will be difficult.
(2) Dynamics of Shrinkage: 1965 baby bust lasting until 1976 – Generation X is a moving indentation in our US demography. Gen X is 45 to 55 years old now, a small group that will result in a surplus of Boomer McMansions.
(3) Advancing Growth Echo: Generation Y, Boomers’ children, also called the Ritalin Generation, born from 1977 until 1995, just short of Boomers in number, are 15 to 33 years old now. Gen Y is entering the labor force in severe economic times. The US is in a deep economic hole, as follows:
(4) Recession and Employment Losses:
The current recession is the longest since WWII. The US now has positive growth but cumulative employment losses in 2008 and 2009 are 8,518,000 jobs. Things are getting worse slower now. 2000 to 2010 is a Lost Economic Decade with private sector jobs declining by 2.7%, the first decline in jobs since the 1930’s.
The job deficit is unprecedented. The job deficit is estimated at 11,100,000 jobs, by adding to the 8.5 million jobs lost the 2.6 new workers joining the labor force since 2008
It will take until summer 2017 to bring the job market into equilibrium, based on the assumptions that 1.3 million new workers enter the job market each year, job creation will be 2.6 million per year (a very optimistic projection), leaving a surplus of jobs per year of 1.3 million. At this rate of job creation the job deficit should be erased by summer 2017.
Persons entering the job market in these conditions will find their career starts delayed and their career trajectories seriously affected.
(5) Increased Diversification of Population: 26% of the NJ labor force is foreign born, 1.7 million people. From 2000-2008 Asian and Hispanic populations in NJ increased dramatically, and in 20 years non Hispanic whites will be a minority of the NJ population.
(6) Dual Migration: NJ added 293,361 people between 2000 and 2009. Domestic migration yielded a net loss of 459,803 persons while international migration yielded a net gain of 399,803 persons for a net loss from migration of 60,000 persons during that period. Births, however, yielded a net increase of population of 374,414. The loss from domestic migration is the 5th largest in the US.
Dr. Hughes’ forecasts:
- Some of these projections will be right. The longer out a forecast is the less likely that it will continue to be accurate.
- There will be a new economic normal. We will not have the same economy as we have had in the past.
- A career lesson to students is to always listen to your boss.
- The Boomers were not savers and will be depleting their resources, with a likely hit to the stock market. Will this be offset by foreign investments?
- Time to sell your house? Interest rates are lower now than will be in future, so good mortgage climate. If you have a Buyer, you might want to take them up on it.
- Change in incomes: will continue to decline with a difficult recovery. Without strong job growth it is hard to recover income levels.
- The 2010 Census data will be available in December, 2010. By 2012 elections the House districts have to be redrawn. Overall population shift to urban areas. The growth areas in NJ are in South Jersey.
- Effect of gerrymandering on reapportionment: NJ has bipartisan commission to reapportion led by either Rutgers or Princeton experts, with a view to protecting the seniority of House Representatives. Other states, such as California, will be shifting to bi or nonpartisan redistricting.
- Effect of Outsourcing on job loss: hard to determine, but US corporations have made new investments and expansions in global growth markets, such as China and India in the past decade.
- The homeless are surveyed and counted separately in March. The undocumented residents are counted. The Census sends out “enumerators” to count those difficult to reach.
- The 2000 Census was considered to be 99% accurate, and there is every reason to believe that this Census will be up to that standard.
Respectfully submitted
Julia Bowers Coale