March 3, 2021
Update on the Coronavirus: The Road Ahead
J. Stephen Morrison
Senior VP & Director Global Health Policy Center,
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Lanny Jones, Introducer, and J. Steven Morrison
Minutes of the 22nd Meeting of the 79th Year
President Stephen Schreiber called the meeting to order at 10:15 AM. Julie Denny read the minutes of the February 24th meeting. Guests at the meeting were: Earlene Baumunk Cancilla, guest of Marge D’Amico; Judy Funches, guest of Christine Danser; Richard Preston, guest of John Kelsey; Jared Kieling, guest of Dan and Sandy Shapiro (Jared is a former Old Guard member, who moved to Minneapolis in 2020); Kevin Murray, guest of Simon Murray; Dana Miller-MacKenzie, guest (and daughter) of Bernie Miller; Melanie and John Clarke, guests of Ann Damsgaard. There were 181 attendees.
Lanny Jones introduced J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director of the Global Health Policy Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Dr. Morrison gave an update on the Covid-19 pandemic, the progress of vaccines, and plans to combat the virus in the United States and around the world.
There is some cause for optimism. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has been given emergency authorization. With the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, the United States is now ramping up production of three vaccines. The Biden administration is using the Defense Production Act to direct competing pharmaceutical companies to form cooperative ventures in producing vaccines. This includes J&J with Merck, and Sanofi with Novartis. Fifty million people in the United States have received a first dose of vaccine and 25 million have received a second dose. Recorded cases are down from their highs.
President Joe Biden’s administration has brought metrics and accountability to replace the previous administration’s chaotic system. There is a push to have more equity in vaccine distribution and also to memorialize those who have died. The $1.9 trillion bill in the Senate will go towards improving that vision, however, Congress is bitterly divided on the final specifics. President Biden wants to reengage in the G7 conference, the World Health Organization (WHO), and work with other countries, such as India, to produce more vaccines.
There are also reasons for caution:
Dr. Morrison proposed questions for the future:
Things to think about for the future:
How was Israel able to achieve its high vaccination rate? We could use this as a model, with the possibility of vaccine passports.
Thoughts about moving toward reestablishing a more normal life are being discussed. Research is being done by airlines and the cruise ship industry. Risks can be brought down but still exist. We must move step by step, and this will involve personal choice.
Respectfully submitted,
Lois Shindelman
Lanny Jones introduced J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director of the Global Health Policy Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Dr. Morrison gave an update on the Covid-19 pandemic, the progress of vaccines, and plans to combat the virus in the United States and around the world.
There is some cause for optimism. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has been given emergency authorization. With the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, the United States is now ramping up production of three vaccines. The Biden administration is using the Defense Production Act to direct competing pharmaceutical companies to form cooperative ventures in producing vaccines. This includes J&J with Merck, and Sanofi with Novartis. Fifty million people in the United States have received a first dose of vaccine and 25 million have received a second dose. Recorded cases are down from their highs.
President Joe Biden’s administration has brought metrics and accountability to replace the previous administration’s chaotic system. There is a push to have more equity in vaccine distribution and also to memorialize those who have died. The $1.9 trillion bill in the Senate will go towards improving that vision, however, Congress is bitterly divided on the final specifics. President Biden wants to reengage in the G7 conference, the World Health Organization (WHO), and work with other countries, such as India, to produce more vaccines.
There are also reasons for caution:
- The new variants of Brazil, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States pose a threat and challenge. There are concerns about transmission overriding vaccines and the possibility of reinfection,
- In order to achieve herd immunity, 80-85% of the population need to be vaccinated.
- It is unclear how long will vaccine immunity last. Thirteen percent of Americans are predicted to refuse the vaccine and 36% have some hesitancy. Black and poor Americans have skepticism about vaccines.
- Children are not included in the present vaccine rollout, but trials are underway. There are strong debates about opening schools.
- There are worries that controls will be loosened prematurely in an exhausted population.
- There is a chaotic international vaccine marketplace, affecting international diplomacy. Wealthy nations have turned inward because of the virus threat and have bought up most of the vaccine.
- Politicization of anti-vaccine and anti-mask movements still exists.
- There is concern over “long haulers.” These are people whose symptoms do not fully recover months after they have had Covid-19. Symptoms include brain fog; fatigue; heart, renal, and gastrointestinal problems; insomnia; and migraines.
Dr. Morrison proposed questions for the future:
- How long should we continue the Defense Production Act? There is a shortage of manufacturing ability around the world, especially in low-income countries.
- Are Russian and Chinese vaccines worthwhile and safe?
- Testing, which has decreased since the vaccines, needs to increase. We need to know what variants are circulating and where.
- When will we know if vaccinated people can pass on the virus? We probably won’t know this until the end of 2021.
- There needs to be a rebalancing of responsibility in the United States with the federal government taking over more of a role from the states and counties.
- We need an integrated national health data system. The Center for Disease Control’s system has become antiquated.
- Will vaccines protect medically compromised people? Trial participants were all healthy.
Things to think about for the future:
How was Israel able to achieve its high vaccination rate? We could use this as a model, with the possibility of vaccine passports.
- We may need booster shots for new variants.
- Why are there low infection rates in some parts of the world, such as Africa and Pakistan?
Thoughts about moving toward reestablishing a more normal life are being discussed. Research is being done by airlines and the cruise ship industry. Risks can be brought down but still exist. We must move step by step, and this will involve personal choice.
Respectfully submitted,
Lois Shindelman