April 16, 2008
Beyond the Bush Doctrine:
The United States and the Persian Gulf
Barbara Bodine
Diplomat in Residence, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University
Minutes of the 28th Meeting of the 66th Year
The 28th meeting of our 66th year was called to order by President Joe Giordmaine at 10:15 AM. The convocation was led by George Hansen. Ernie Schlieban read the minutes of the previous meeting. Dick Armstrong introduced Dr. Michael Barry, and Dick Hanson introduced Luke Finlay, as guests. President Giordmaine complimented Jerry Berkelhammer, and his fellow members of the Arrangements Committee for keeping our communications equipment in good order.
He then called on Ruth Miller to introduce the speaker, Ambassador Barbara Bodine.
Ambassador Bodine, is lecturer and diplomat-in residence at Woodrow Wilson School, where she teaches courses on the Iraq war and on US diplomacy in the Middle East as it relates to the Gulf region and southwest Asia. Her over 30 years in the U.S. Foreign Service were spent primarily on Arabian peninsula and Persian Gulf issues. She served in Baghdad as Deputy Principal Officer during the Iran-Iraq War, in Kuwait as Deputy Chief of Mission during the Iraq invasion and occupation of 1990-1991 and was seconded to the Department of Defense, in Iraq in 2003 as the senior State Department official and the first coalition coordinator for reconstruction in Baghdad. Ambassador Bodine is a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the University of California, Santa Barbara, and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Her topic was “Beyond the Bush Doctrine: The United States and the Persian Gulf.” The Gulf States are those which border the western side of the Persian gulf----they are, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Emirates.
Ambassador Bodine began by observing that many Americans have a stereotyped notion of these states as combinations of gas stations and terrorist training camps. The reality is much more complex.
Though they differ vastly in size and climate they share common characteristics:: they are all hereditary monarchies. yet each is relatively progressive socially and politically. Women have been allowed to attend school since the 1960s.
And, they face similar internal challenges: Most Gulf States have populations of less than a million people, but the striking fact is that about 40 percent are under the age of 18. How these young people will be educated, and how they will find jobs is unclear, since schools lack facilities to train students to compete in societies with high rates of unemployment.
Moreover, Ambassador Bodine stated that while their leadership is the most progressive of any of the counties in the region, with flexible and adaptive, governmental structures, they leave much to be desired in the such areas as women’s rights and the status of minorities.
Most interesting to me was her discussion of the impact of skyrocketing oil prices, which are the inevitable result of increasing demand and instability in oil producing countries. The Gulf is awash in money, witness the frenzy of spending in Dubai. Actually, we benefit from that since a lot of these states invest in banks and equity firms in the United States, thus, according to Ambassador Bodine, “keeping our economy afloat.” And for the first time, much of this wealth is also being put to work on reconstruction projects in non-oil-rich countries such as Egypt and Syria. The result is a new kind of intra-regional trade and investment which is uniting the Middle Eastern world as never before. It is providing employment, encouraging the growth of tourism and a greater commitment to education, in addition to having a politically moderating effect on countries like Syria. The flip side of the coin (forgive the pun) is the horrible possibility that double-digit inflation and consequent serious food shortages in the Gulf, where virtually everything is imported, combined with a weakening dollar might tempt the Amirs to take the oil off the dollar peg.
Finally, there is the question of how these states see American policy toward Iran’s flirtation with nuclear power, and their fear that precipitous action on our part could set off a chain reaction of events in the form of retribution against them.
Ambassador Bodine concluded that we should form a collaborative relationship with them, that we need to support and encourage reform movements that seek to move forward from the status quo, opening up the political and social space, whether or not this means democracy as we might define it. Thus we can help the region move into to the 21st century as a partner of the United States.
Respectfully submitted
Rosemary O’Brien
He then called on Ruth Miller to introduce the speaker, Ambassador Barbara Bodine.
Ambassador Bodine, is lecturer and diplomat-in residence at Woodrow Wilson School, where she teaches courses on the Iraq war and on US diplomacy in the Middle East as it relates to the Gulf region and southwest Asia. Her over 30 years in the U.S. Foreign Service were spent primarily on Arabian peninsula and Persian Gulf issues. She served in Baghdad as Deputy Principal Officer during the Iran-Iraq War, in Kuwait as Deputy Chief of Mission during the Iraq invasion and occupation of 1990-1991 and was seconded to the Department of Defense, in Iraq in 2003 as the senior State Department official and the first coalition coordinator for reconstruction in Baghdad. Ambassador Bodine is a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the University of California, Santa Barbara, and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Her topic was “Beyond the Bush Doctrine: The United States and the Persian Gulf.” The Gulf States are those which border the western side of the Persian gulf----they are, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Emirates.
Ambassador Bodine began by observing that many Americans have a stereotyped notion of these states as combinations of gas stations and terrorist training camps. The reality is much more complex.
Though they differ vastly in size and climate they share common characteristics:: they are all hereditary monarchies. yet each is relatively progressive socially and politically. Women have been allowed to attend school since the 1960s.
And, they face similar internal challenges: Most Gulf States have populations of less than a million people, but the striking fact is that about 40 percent are under the age of 18. How these young people will be educated, and how they will find jobs is unclear, since schools lack facilities to train students to compete in societies with high rates of unemployment.
Moreover, Ambassador Bodine stated that while their leadership is the most progressive of any of the counties in the region, with flexible and adaptive, governmental structures, they leave much to be desired in the such areas as women’s rights and the status of minorities.
Most interesting to me was her discussion of the impact of skyrocketing oil prices, which are the inevitable result of increasing demand and instability in oil producing countries. The Gulf is awash in money, witness the frenzy of spending in Dubai. Actually, we benefit from that since a lot of these states invest in banks and equity firms in the United States, thus, according to Ambassador Bodine, “keeping our economy afloat.” And for the first time, much of this wealth is also being put to work on reconstruction projects in non-oil-rich countries such as Egypt and Syria. The result is a new kind of intra-regional trade and investment which is uniting the Middle Eastern world as never before. It is providing employment, encouraging the growth of tourism and a greater commitment to education, in addition to having a politically moderating effect on countries like Syria. The flip side of the coin (forgive the pun) is the horrible possibility that double-digit inflation and consequent serious food shortages in the Gulf, where virtually everything is imported, combined with a weakening dollar might tempt the Amirs to take the oil off the dollar peg.
Finally, there is the question of how these states see American policy toward Iran’s flirtation with nuclear power, and their fear that precipitous action on our part could set off a chain reaction of events in the form of retribution against them.
Ambassador Bodine concluded that we should form a collaborative relationship with them, that we need to support and encourage reform movements that seek to move forward from the status quo, opening up the political and social space, whether or not this means democracy as we might define it. Thus we can help the region move into to the 21st century as a partner of the United States.
Respectfully submitted
Rosemary O’Brien