April 18, 2012
Eclipse of the Sunnis:
Power, Exile, and Upheaval in the Middle East
Deborah Amos
NPR Correspondent;
Visiting Journalism Professor, Princeton University
Eclipse of the Sunnis:
Power, Exile, and Upheaval in the Middle East
Deborah Amos
NPR Correspondent;
Visiting Journalism Professor, Princeton University
Deborah Amos, Speaker
Minutes of the 29th Meeting of the 70th Year
President Varrin opened the meeting at 10:15, Don Edwards led the invocation, Larry Perrin read the minutes of the April 12 meeting. Perry Morgan introduced his guest and wife, Liz, John Frederick introduced his wife, Jean and visitor Susan Perin, Julia Coale introduced John Hegedus, Betsey Smith introduced Nancy Smith and Dick Scribner introduced Hews Agnew.
President Varrin reminded members that the revised spring program goes until May 23. He thanked the members for their cooperation in the picture taking and demanded they promise to be present for another picture five years hence!
Lanny Jones introduced the speaker, Deborah Amos, as the second in the Old Guard’s double-header on the Middle East. Amos is currently the visiting Farris Professor of Journalism at the University and focuses on all media platforms. She has covered the 1991 Gulf War, the emerging power of Turkey and the plight of Iraqi refugees. She joined NPR in 1977 and was on foreign assignment there from 1985 until 1993. Then, after a decade of foreign reporting for television, she returned to NPR in 2003. Along with distinguished writing awards, she was a Nieman Fellow at Harvard as well as a Fellow at the Kennedy School. The most recent of her two books: is “The Eclipse of the Sunnis.”
Deborah Amos began on a sunny note, declaring herself an “Arab Spring Junkie” and the light to Bernard Haykal’s dark view of the Middle East—at least she sees glimmers of hope. She described the Arab Spring as “the most interesting and exciting event in my lifetime,” but warned that generational change and great moments of history are usually chaotic, bloody affairs. The outcome is uncertain but it is certainly the largest threat to a U.S. system of alliances with dictators.
Egypt was, for her, the “face-book revolution” full of appealing young people, an emphasis on non-violence, and even ultra-conservative Salafis declaring themselves “pro-democracy.” Amos attaches more importance to the prevalence of cell phones than to the internet in organizing dissent. Cell phones were 93 per 100 in Tunisia and 67 per hundred in Egypt. The Saudis, excited by events in Egypt even watched al-Jazeera and took over internet action when the government closed down the internet in Egypt. She emphasized the significance of the social media in leveling the playing field, scaring Saudi Arabia and Dubai which are now trying to monitor and control this media. She drew attention to an International Hackers Union of Arab activists—Lebanese, Tunisians, Egyptians and then Syrians--who, beginning in 2005, went to Belgrade for non-violent training. There they watched a movie in Arabic, “Bringing down the Dictator,” about Milosovic and learned how it was done. She pointed to protests going back to 2005 when the beating death of young Khalid Sa’id at an internet cafe sped around the internet, attracting a real grass roots audience in Egypt where he even became the subject of a popular rap song. Bou Azizi was only the latest in desperate Tunisians setting themselves on fire, but the eighteen days he took to die gave time for his story to take hold and to be tweeted and retweeted.
A political conversation has begun across the Middle East, she declared. For example, the Syrians Skype with Egyptian activists and an uptick in tweets can warn of imminent protests. Al-Jazeera experienced a 2,500 % increase in on-line viewers of which 60% were from the U.S.
Amos considers the youth bulge in the Middle East the most important part of the Arab Spring: job prospects for the young were the worst in the world and the most educated have the worst prospects. The UN Arab Development Report of 2002 was so bad that Arab governments tried to censor it. A whole generation has to live at home, with delayed marriage and no chance of playing a fully adult role. Just as many went down from their apartments into the streets and then became activists, those who found their internet use curtailed by the government, turned from passive observers into activists.
Amos sees an Act II to the Arab Spring now that the Islamists, who held back earlier, are out in front, while the young people, not so organized, are losing out in elections. Yet the Muslim Brotherhood, by providing social services that the government could not, has promoted a notion of personal rights and dignity. Although we don’t know what the Muslim Brothers are really thinking, they appear to be making rational decisions and she sees signs that a political culture is developing.
Answering the many questions, Amos spoke of the massive number of refugees from Iraq, mostly Sunni, that had left Baghdad, now a largely Shi’a city. There is an argument in Syria that Beshar al-Assad is using sectarianism as a weapon to push out the Sunnis there.
She is not optimistic about any imminent change in the status of women in Saudi Arabia although there are some women finding their voice on the internet. Yet women have had leadership roles in Iraq and Egypt. One way of judging Arab regimes, she declared, was in their treatment of minorities and women.
She believes that the crisis in Syria requires a regional resolution and sees Kofi Annan’s approach as the only game in town, especially if the Russians can be brought to be more cooperative. No governments want to tackle Syria; Turkey wants to call in NATO; the Gulf states’ promise to fund the rebel Syrian army has not materialized.
Speaking of the eclipse of the Sunnis, Amos pointed to the present situation in Iraq and the threat that Syria will break apart.
As for the U.S. role, she urged: “just stay put.” She pointed out that now we talk to everybody and everyone wants to talk to us as there is no “right side to history.” Besides, the US is broke and our money is tainted.
She believes that the more democratic new regimes will not be able to ignore public opinion about the Palestinians. The Saudis are keeping Yemen quiet as it threatens to become another Somalia, while Europe and the U.S. have too many Libyan skeletons in their closets to want to interfere with the new regime.
The strength of the Islamists, declared Amos, is in their well-known lack of corruption. They are the one clean group to whom the populace turns just as it turned to the uncorrupted AKP in Turkey and Hizbullah in Lebanon.
Al-Jazeera English, she said, was like the BBC which had trained most of its staff. It has not yet been able to get on cable in the U.S. but is trying to expand to India and Australia. Al-Jazeera Arabic, dwelling more on Middle East issues, tends to inflame feelings.
As for population control in the face of shortages of food and water, although the Islamists are against birth control, the population is expected to decline, given that across all economic groups, at least in Egypt, the situation is so dire that marriages are being significantly delayed.
Respectfully submitted,
Letitia W. Ufford
President Varrin reminded members that the revised spring program goes until May 23. He thanked the members for their cooperation in the picture taking and demanded they promise to be present for another picture five years hence!
Lanny Jones introduced the speaker, Deborah Amos, as the second in the Old Guard’s double-header on the Middle East. Amos is currently the visiting Farris Professor of Journalism at the University and focuses on all media platforms. She has covered the 1991 Gulf War, the emerging power of Turkey and the plight of Iraqi refugees. She joined NPR in 1977 and was on foreign assignment there from 1985 until 1993. Then, after a decade of foreign reporting for television, she returned to NPR in 2003. Along with distinguished writing awards, she was a Nieman Fellow at Harvard as well as a Fellow at the Kennedy School. The most recent of her two books: is “The Eclipse of the Sunnis.”
Deborah Amos began on a sunny note, declaring herself an “Arab Spring Junkie” and the light to Bernard Haykal’s dark view of the Middle East—at least she sees glimmers of hope. She described the Arab Spring as “the most interesting and exciting event in my lifetime,” but warned that generational change and great moments of history are usually chaotic, bloody affairs. The outcome is uncertain but it is certainly the largest threat to a U.S. system of alliances with dictators.
Egypt was, for her, the “face-book revolution” full of appealing young people, an emphasis on non-violence, and even ultra-conservative Salafis declaring themselves “pro-democracy.” Amos attaches more importance to the prevalence of cell phones than to the internet in organizing dissent. Cell phones were 93 per 100 in Tunisia and 67 per hundred in Egypt. The Saudis, excited by events in Egypt even watched al-Jazeera and took over internet action when the government closed down the internet in Egypt. She emphasized the significance of the social media in leveling the playing field, scaring Saudi Arabia and Dubai which are now trying to monitor and control this media. She drew attention to an International Hackers Union of Arab activists—Lebanese, Tunisians, Egyptians and then Syrians--who, beginning in 2005, went to Belgrade for non-violent training. There they watched a movie in Arabic, “Bringing down the Dictator,” about Milosovic and learned how it was done. She pointed to protests going back to 2005 when the beating death of young Khalid Sa’id at an internet cafe sped around the internet, attracting a real grass roots audience in Egypt where he even became the subject of a popular rap song. Bou Azizi was only the latest in desperate Tunisians setting themselves on fire, but the eighteen days he took to die gave time for his story to take hold and to be tweeted and retweeted.
A political conversation has begun across the Middle East, she declared. For example, the Syrians Skype with Egyptian activists and an uptick in tweets can warn of imminent protests. Al-Jazeera experienced a 2,500 % increase in on-line viewers of which 60% were from the U.S.
Amos considers the youth bulge in the Middle East the most important part of the Arab Spring: job prospects for the young were the worst in the world and the most educated have the worst prospects. The UN Arab Development Report of 2002 was so bad that Arab governments tried to censor it. A whole generation has to live at home, with delayed marriage and no chance of playing a fully adult role. Just as many went down from their apartments into the streets and then became activists, those who found their internet use curtailed by the government, turned from passive observers into activists.
Amos sees an Act II to the Arab Spring now that the Islamists, who held back earlier, are out in front, while the young people, not so organized, are losing out in elections. Yet the Muslim Brotherhood, by providing social services that the government could not, has promoted a notion of personal rights and dignity. Although we don’t know what the Muslim Brothers are really thinking, they appear to be making rational decisions and she sees signs that a political culture is developing.
Answering the many questions, Amos spoke of the massive number of refugees from Iraq, mostly Sunni, that had left Baghdad, now a largely Shi’a city. There is an argument in Syria that Beshar al-Assad is using sectarianism as a weapon to push out the Sunnis there.
She is not optimistic about any imminent change in the status of women in Saudi Arabia although there are some women finding their voice on the internet. Yet women have had leadership roles in Iraq and Egypt. One way of judging Arab regimes, she declared, was in their treatment of minorities and women.
She believes that the crisis in Syria requires a regional resolution and sees Kofi Annan’s approach as the only game in town, especially if the Russians can be brought to be more cooperative. No governments want to tackle Syria; Turkey wants to call in NATO; the Gulf states’ promise to fund the rebel Syrian army has not materialized.
Speaking of the eclipse of the Sunnis, Amos pointed to the present situation in Iraq and the threat that Syria will break apart.
As for the U.S. role, she urged: “just stay put.” She pointed out that now we talk to everybody and everyone wants to talk to us as there is no “right side to history.” Besides, the US is broke and our money is tainted.
She believes that the more democratic new regimes will not be able to ignore public opinion about the Palestinians. The Saudis are keeping Yemen quiet as it threatens to become another Somalia, while Europe and the U.S. have too many Libyan skeletons in their closets to want to interfere with the new regime.
The strength of the Islamists, declared Amos, is in their well-known lack of corruption. They are the one clean group to whom the populace turns just as it turned to the uncorrupted AKP in Turkey and Hizbullah in Lebanon.
Al-Jazeera English, she said, was like the BBC which had trained most of its staff. It has not yet been able to get on cable in the U.S. but is trying to expand to India and Australia. Al-Jazeera Arabic, dwelling more on Middle East issues, tends to inflame feelings.
As for population control in the face of shortages of food and water, although the Islamists are against birth control, the population is expected to decline, given that across all economic groups, at least in Egypt, the situation is so dire that marriages are being significantly delayed.
Respectfully submitted,
Letitia W. Ufford