May 10, 2006
China, Taiwan, and the U.S.
Lynn White
Professor of Politics and International Affairs,
Princeton University
Minutes of the 32nd Meeting of the 64th Year
At 10:15 AM, President Haynes called to order the 85 members of the 32nd meeting of the 64th year, assembled in the James Stewart Theatre. John Marks precented the invocation after which Bill Haynes acknowledged the sad news of Bill Noonan’s recent death. His good news was the continuing recovery of Don Dickason. The meeting of the Executive Committee at the Nassau Club at 1.45 in the afternoon was mentioned. George Cody then gave a most competent summary, in the minutes of the last meeting, of Gregory Olsen’s talk on his ten-day visit to the Russian-American space station.
Bill Caton introduced his guest Sam Lenox, Bill Bonini presented his visitors – his wife Rose, and friend Virginia Wei. David Dodge presented his wife Peggy as a visitor; Ernest Schlieben introduced his guest Sidney Cadwalder, while Henry King and John Marks introduced as visitors their respective wives, Landa and Minta. The president then reminded us next week’s final meeting of the term.
David Dodge presented the speaker, Lynn White, professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton A graduate of Williams, he got a Ph.D. from Berkeley, becoming a professor here in 1972. Spending much time in East Asia, he speaks Chinese and Japanese, and reads German, French and Russian. He, like David, is a Trustee of the venerable Princeton in Asia programme and has had numerous honours awarded him. He is an honorary member of the Princeton Class of 1984. The talk was entitled “China, Taiwan and Us.”
America tries to take account of two somewhat incompatible realities – China’s size and Taiwan’s democracy. On the one hand we want good relations with the world’s most populous nation, fastest-growing economy, a formidable military power with a chip on its shoulder over past humiliations, and a state which fears erosion of the authoritarian rule it views as essential for competing in the world. On the other hand we hope to support democracy in Taiwan, a country with only a sixtieth of China’s population. Mr. White saw America’s attempt to balance these two aims resulting in partly hopeful and partly contradictory policies. The U.S. Navy is to hold off China using force over Taiwan while we hope for the emergence on the mainland of a political system the Taiwanese can feel a part of. The U.S. cannot be seen to let down a democracy in East Asia, even one we don’t recognize diplomatically, even though this self-proclaimed “dictatorship of the proletariat” has morphed into a dictatorship of “semi-private capitalists.”
How did we get to this point? As late as the 1930s, China did not claim Formosa as part of China, but FDR was persuaded to let Chiang Kai-Shek accept Japanese surrenders on the island, and Nixon and Carter, along with recognizing Red China, issued placatory but mystifying phrases about what all Chinese recognize – they did not state what America recognizes. Because China has not leveled a single UN veto against us, and welcomes Taiwanese investment in the mainland, some in the U.S. administration know that hostilities over Taiwan is something no one wants and would be costly in every way to everybody. Peaceful relations with China are vital since their investment bolsters our ability to live beyond our means. Some also realize that if Taiwan proclaimed independence, China would almost certainly fight, come what may. The Taiwanese certainly know that, whatever they may wish privately.
As he painted it, time produces two developments not thoroughly comfortable with one another – realization of China’s military potential and the possible emergence of a Chinese democracy. Indeed, immediate absorption of Taiwan would add to China’s political problems; a flourishing interior democratic society would demonstrate unwelcome features like competitive elections. Since in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and especially with respect to the Palestinians we do not follow Wilson’s doctrine of self-determination, does our policy really come down to supporting democracies on the grounds that they leave each other in peace? He questioned whether America must be committed to battling in defence of Taiwan, particularly if China gropes toward democracy.
He hinted at a number of ironies we have spawned. Working against peace is not only the self-interest of their military-industrial complex but of our own, of which Eisenhower warned us and which also needs a credible antagonist. The old debate resurfaces - is “what is good for General Motors good for America”? Mr. White hinted delicately at the possibility that a dictatorship of corporate capitalism is what we ourselves are fast becoming. There also lurks the awkward question of what we would think if a foreign power had been able in 1861 to command the northern states to abandon all thoughts of invading the south. So the matter comes down to what America sees as its own interests.
At least a dozen questions probed the subject further and the meeting ended at about 11:30 AM.
Respectfully submitted,
John Frederick
Bill Caton introduced his guest Sam Lenox, Bill Bonini presented his visitors – his wife Rose, and friend Virginia Wei. David Dodge presented his wife Peggy as a visitor; Ernest Schlieben introduced his guest Sidney Cadwalder, while Henry King and John Marks introduced as visitors their respective wives, Landa and Minta. The president then reminded us next week’s final meeting of the term.
David Dodge presented the speaker, Lynn White, professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton A graduate of Williams, he got a Ph.D. from Berkeley, becoming a professor here in 1972. Spending much time in East Asia, he speaks Chinese and Japanese, and reads German, French and Russian. He, like David, is a Trustee of the venerable Princeton in Asia programme and has had numerous honours awarded him. He is an honorary member of the Princeton Class of 1984. The talk was entitled “China, Taiwan and Us.”
America tries to take account of two somewhat incompatible realities – China’s size and Taiwan’s democracy. On the one hand we want good relations with the world’s most populous nation, fastest-growing economy, a formidable military power with a chip on its shoulder over past humiliations, and a state which fears erosion of the authoritarian rule it views as essential for competing in the world. On the other hand we hope to support democracy in Taiwan, a country with only a sixtieth of China’s population. Mr. White saw America’s attempt to balance these two aims resulting in partly hopeful and partly contradictory policies. The U.S. Navy is to hold off China using force over Taiwan while we hope for the emergence on the mainland of a political system the Taiwanese can feel a part of. The U.S. cannot be seen to let down a democracy in East Asia, even one we don’t recognize diplomatically, even though this self-proclaimed “dictatorship of the proletariat” has morphed into a dictatorship of “semi-private capitalists.”
How did we get to this point? As late as the 1930s, China did not claim Formosa as part of China, but FDR was persuaded to let Chiang Kai-Shek accept Japanese surrenders on the island, and Nixon and Carter, along with recognizing Red China, issued placatory but mystifying phrases about what all Chinese recognize – they did not state what America recognizes. Because China has not leveled a single UN veto against us, and welcomes Taiwanese investment in the mainland, some in the U.S. administration know that hostilities over Taiwan is something no one wants and would be costly in every way to everybody. Peaceful relations with China are vital since their investment bolsters our ability to live beyond our means. Some also realize that if Taiwan proclaimed independence, China would almost certainly fight, come what may. The Taiwanese certainly know that, whatever they may wish privately.
As he painted it, time produces two developments not thoroughly comfortable with one another – realization of China’s military potential and the possible emergence of a Chinese democracy. Indeed, immediate absorption of Taiwan would add to China’s political problems; a flourishing interior democratic society would demonstrate unwelcome features like competitive elections. Since in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and especially with respect to the Palestinians we do not follow Wilson’s doctrine of self-determination, does our policy really come down to supporting democracies on the grounds that they leave each other in peace? He questioned whether America must be committed to battling in defence of Taiwan, particularly if China gropes toward democracy.
He hinted at a number of ironies we have spawned. Working against peace is not only the self-interest of their military-industrial complex but of our own, of which Eisenhower warned us and which also needs a credible antagonist. The old debate resurfaces - is “what is good for General Motors good for America”? Mr. White hinted delicately at the possibility that a dictatorship of corporate capitalism is what we ourselves are fast becoming. There also lurks the awkward question of what we would think if a foreign power had been able in 1861 to command the northern states to abandon all thoughts of invading the south. So the matter comes down to what America sees as its own interests.
At least a dozen questions probed the subject further and the meeting ended at about 11:30 AM.
Respectfully submitted,
John Frederick