May 12, 2021
The Future of the Transatlantic Relationship
R. Daniel Kelemen
Professor of Political Science and Law,
Jean Monnet Chair of European Union Politics, Rutgers University
George Bustin, Introducer, and Daniel Kelemen
Minutes of the 32nd Meeting of the 79th Year
The meeting was held on the Zoom platform and was called to order by President Stephen Schreiber at 10:15 AM. There were 136 unique viewers on Zoom for the meeting.
Lynn Johnston read the minutes of the meeting of May 5, 2021, featuring a talk by Professor Radcliffe Edmonds III of Bryn Mawr College entitled “Drawing Down the Moon: Magic in the Ancient Greco-Roman World.”
The president then called for a moment of silence in memory of Old Guard member Richard Aziz “Dick” Katen, who died recently. Dick joined the Old Guard in 1995.
Membership chair Greg Dobbs conducted an election of twelve candidates for membership in the Old Guard, whose names had been communicated to the full membership and were displayed again on the screen before the vote. Upon a motion of the Membership Committee, duly seconded, a vote was taken electronically on the Zoom platform and all candidates were elected. Mr. Dobbs observed that there are still several slots available for new members and applications may be submitted over the summer for a possible vote in September. The president thanked the Membership Committee for its excellent work.
The president mentioned that it is not yet clear whether or when we will resume in-person meetings, but the working assumption is that we will remain on the Zoom platform for the Fall. A special committee headed by John Cotton is exploring our options while Joan Girgus considers possible alternative venues; members will be kept informed of our plans as they develop over the summer. Average attendance at meetings this year has been about 145, compared to 117 last year.
The president noted that the next meeting will be held on May 19, 2021; the speaker will be Professor Joseph Henrich of Harvard University on “The WEIRDEST People in the World: How the West became psychologically peculiar and particularly prosperous.”
George Bustin introduced the speaker, R. Daniel Kelemen, Professor of Political Science and Law, Jean Monnet Professor of European Union Politics, to speak on “The Future of the Transatlantic Relationship.”
Professor Kelemen noted that for several generations of people on both sides of the Atlantic, the partnership has a strong personal element: His father was an immigrant from Hungary, his own childhood was spent largely in Germany, he is married to a Belgian. The ties run deep but we cannot rely on nostalgia to preserve the partnership; we must look ahead.
The damage done to transatlantic relations during the Trump presidency was real and significant. Prof. Kelemen noted that just before meeting Russian President Putin in Helsinki, Trump said “the EU is a foe.” He maintained an attitude of active hostility to the EU, encouraged Brexit, and embraced populist Euro-skeptics elsewhere. Biden is a confirmed Atlanticist and Europeans understand that, but, as in the case of a couple when one has cheated, it is hard to restore trust and proceed as before.
Prof. Kelemen reviewed a series of public opinion polls taken in various European countries in recent years, mostly during the previous administration. In one poll after another, Europeans expressed doubts about the reliability of the US as a partner and about its commitment to liberal democracy. In a specific poll asking what Europe should do in case of a conflict between the US and China, the large majority in most countries preferred to remain neutral. Most expressed the view that in 10 years or less, China would be more powerful than the US.
Many European leaders have concluded that the transatlantic partnership must be reassessed, but not abandoned. Prof. Kelemen quoted President Macron to the effect that NATO is “brain-dead” and needs to be fundamentally reconceived.
Nevertheless, we should not lose sight of the fact that, in terms of investment, trade in goods and services, research and development, and similar measures, the transatlantic connection is still by far the most important in the world, certainly to both the US and to Europe, even if its part of the global economy is shrinking.
Prof. Kelemen proposed five major themes going forward:
1. The importance of bipartisan support in the US for the transatlantic partnership: Such support, symbolized by a photo of the late Senator McCain and then Vice President Biden, endured for most of the last 75 years. The shift of the Republican party toward policies favored by Trump and his supporters raises questions about bipartisan support going forward, even if there are still some moderate Republicans in the Senate who are traditional “Atlanticists.” The ouster of Liz Cheney from her leadership position just today illustrates the uncertainties about the direction of the GOP. Without bipartisan support, the partnership cannot continue as before.
2. Recognition by key European leaders that “European sovereignty” and autonomy need to be revitalized to enable the EU to act on a collective level equal to the superpowers: This means diverging when necessary, from US policies and preferences, as in Angela Merkel’s strong support for EU-China trade relations, despite US pressure.
3. The Brussels Effect, a recent book, describes how the sheer size and depth of the EU economy puts it in a good position to determine global standards and regulations. If the EU acts together, it can largely influence the terms of trade, in cooperation with the US if possible, but on its own if necessary– and failure of US/EU cooperation on such matters opens the door to others to set the terms, notably China.
4. How do US-EU relations develop post-Brexit, without the UK playing its customary role as a kind of “bridge” between the two? Might the US now actually encourage closer ties between the UK and EU because that is in the US’s own interest?
5. Digital space (common standards for artificial intelligence and data privacy): This is another area, together with climate change and the promotion of liberal democracy, where close collaboration between the US and the EU will be critical; failing that, others will set the agenda in ways that will be to our joint disadvantage.
In response to questions from the membership, Prof. Kelemen said he believed NATO will endure but that the EU must assume greater responsibility, and with that, greater autonomy on defense policy; an unqualified unilateral US guarantee cannot last forever. He also expressed the view that Brexit will not lead to the break-up of the EU. The calamitous experience of the UK in extricating itself from the EU has made it clear to even the most euro-skeptic politicians that this is not a good precedent to follow. He noted that the US media had a tendency to speculate about the imminent collapse of the EU every time there was a crisis and noted that following each such crisis, from the Greek debt crisis to the stability of the Euro to Brexit, the result has been to strengthen the effective powers of the EU institutions, not weaken them. Prof. Kelemen thought that over time, the breakup of the UK through independence for Scotland and possible reunification of Ireland seems more likely than the breakup of the EU.
Finally, Prof. Kelemen argued the importance of viewing transatlantic relations in a larger lens, not just the US and Europe, but also the US and Africa, and Europe and Latin America. There are many lines of kinship and mutual interest that cross the Atlantic, self-reinforcing, and they will be important in determining the future of liberal democracy and the rule of law.
The president thanked Professor Kelemen for a stimulating talk and adjourned the meeting at 11:25 AM.
Respectfully submitted,
George L. Bustin
Lynn Johnston read the minutes of the meeting of May 5, 2021, featuring a talk by Professor Radcliffe Edmonds III of Bryn Mawr College entitled “Drawing Down the Moon: Magic in the Ancient Greco-Roman World.”
The president then called for a moment of silence in memory of Old Guard member Richard Aziz “Dick” Katen, who died recently. Dick joined the Old Guard in 1995.
Membership chair Greg Dobbs conducted an election of twelve candidates for membership in the Old Guard, whose names had been communicated to the full membership and were displayed again on the screen before the vote. Upon a motion of the Membership Committee, duly seconded, a vote was taken electronically on the Zoom platform and all candidates were elected. Mr. Dobbs observed that there are still several slots available for new members and applications may be submitted over the summer for a possible vote in September. The president thanked the Membership Committee for its excellent work.
The president mentioned that it is not yet clear whether or when we will resume in-person meetings, but the working assumption is that we will remain on the Zoom platform for the Fall. A special committee headed by John Cotton is exploring our options while Joan Girgus considers possible alternative venues; members will be kept informed of our plans as they develop over the summer. Average attendance at meetings this year has been about 145, compared to 117 last year.
The president noted that the next meeting will be held on May 19, 2021; the speaker will be Professor Joseph Henrich of Harvard University on “The WEIRDEST People in the World: How the West became psychologically peculiar and particularly prosperous.”
George Bustin introduced the speaker, R. Daniel Kelemen, Professor of Political Science and Law, Jean Monnet Professor of European Union Politics, to speak on “The Future of the Transatlantic Relationship.”
Professor Kelemen noted that for several generations of people on both sides of the Atlantic, the partnership has a strong personal element: His father was an immigrant from Hungary, his own childhood was spent largely in Germany, he is married to a Belgian. The ties run deep but we cannot rely on nostalgia to preserve the partnership; we must look ahead.
The damage done to transatlantic relations during the Trump presidency was real and significant. Prof. Kelemen noted that just before meeting Russian President Putin in Helsinki, Trump said “the EU is a foe.” He maintained an attitude of active hostility to the EU, encouraged Brexit, and embraced populist Euro-skeptics elsewhere. Biden is a confirmed Atlanticist and Europeans understand that, but, as in the case of a couple when one has cheated, it is hard to restore trust and proceed as before.
Prof. Kelemen reviewed a series of public opinion polls taken in various European countries in recent years, mostly during the previous administration. In one poll after another, Europeans expressed doubts about the reliability of the US as a partner and about its commitment to liberal democracy. In a specific poll asking what Europe should do in case of a conflict between the US and China, the large majority in most countries preferred to remain neutral. Most expressed the view that in 10 years or less, China would be more powerful than the US.
Many European leaders have concluded that the transatlantic partnership must be reassessed, but not abandoned. Prof. Kelemen quoted President Macron to the effect that NATO is “brain-dead” and needs to be fundamentally reconceived.
Nevertheless, we should not lose sight of the fact that, in terms of investment, trade in goods and services, research and development, and similar measures, the transatlantic connection is still by far the most important in the world, certainly to both the US and to Europe, even if its part of the global economy is shrinking.
Prof. Kelemen proposed five major themes going forward:
1. The importance of bipartisan support in the US for the transatlantic partnership: Such support, symbolized by a photo of the late Senator McCain and then Vice President Biden, endured for most of the last 75 years. The shift of the Republican party toward policies favored by Trump and his supporters raises questions about bipartisan support going forward, even if there are still some moderate Republicans in the Senate who are traditional “Atlanticists.” The ouster of Liz Cheney from her leadership position just today illustrates the uncertainties about the direction of the GOP. Without bipartisan support, the partnership cannot continue as before.
2. Recognition by key European leaders that “European sovereignty” and autonomy need to be revitalized to enable the EU to act on a collective level equal to the superpowers: This means diverging when necessary, from US policies and preferences, as in Angela Merkel’s strong support for EU-China trade relations, despite US pressure.
3. The Brussels Effect, a recent book, describes how the sheer size and depth of the EU economy puts it in a good position to determine global standards and regulations. If the EU acts together, it can largely influence the terms of trade, in cooperation with the US if possible, but on its own if necessary– and failure of US/EU cooperation on such matters opens the door to others to set the terms, notably China.
4. How do US-EU relations develop post-Brexit, without the UK playing its customary role as a kind of “bridge” between the two? Might the US now actually encourage closer ties between the UK and EU because that is in the US’s own interest?
5. Digital space (common standards for artificial intelligence and data privacy): This is another area, together with climate change and the promotion of liberal democracy, where close collaboration between the US and the EU will be critical; failing that, others will set the agenda in ways that will be to our joint disadvantage.
In response to questions from the membership, Prof. Kelemen said he believed NATO will endure but that the EU must assume greater responsibility, and with that, greater autonomy on defense policy; an unqualified unilateral US guarantee cannot last forever. He also expressed the view that Brexit will not lead to the break-up of the EU. The calamitous experience of the UK in extricating itself from the EU has made it clear to even the most euro-skeptic politicians that this is not a good precedent to follow. He noted that the US media had a tendency to speculate about the imminent collapse of the EU every time there was a crisis and noted that following each such crisis, from the Greek debt crisis to the stability of the Euro to Brexit, the result has been to strengthen the effective powers of the EU institutions, not weaken them. Prof. Kelemen thought that over time, the breakup of the UK through independence for Scotland and possible reunification of Ireland seems more likely than the breakup of the EU.
Finally, Prof. Kelemen argued the importance of viewing transatlantic relations in a larger lens, not just the US and Europe, but also the US and Africa, and Europe and Latin America. There are many lines of kinship and mutual interest that cross the Atlantic, self-reinforcing, and they will be important in determining the future of liberal democracy and the rule of law.
The president thanked Professor Kelemen for a stimulating talk and adjourned the meeting at 11:25 AM.
Respectfully submitted,
George L. Bustin