September 17, 2008
The Election of 2008 in Historical Perspective
Julien E. Zelizer
Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton
Minutes of the First Meeting of the 67th Year
At 10:15 AM, following a social hour, President George Hansen called to order at the Carl Field Center the first meeting of our 67th year. Naturally, he led the invocation. William Barger read the minutes from the May 21 meeting, the last of the spring program.
Jerry Freedman introduced his guest, Dr. Hugh Allen. President Hansen called for a few minutes silence in memory of three Old Guard members who died over the summer, Kenneth (Barney) Barnhart, Colin Henry and James McKeever.
John Schmidt, of the Membership Committee, announced that there will be an election of new members next week. There are seven new prospective members and biographical profiles of each were distributed to all those in attendance. There are also four new emeritus members: Ed Coda, Sy Meisel, Sam Petok and Bob Gunther-Mohr. They were invited to come to the front to be recognized and Sy Meisel said a few words, namely that he had been told at 28 that his blood pressure was too high and he would not have long to live, so that he regards having reached 86 to be his greatest accomplishment.
Treasurer Guy Dean has for sale Old Guard ties and scarves for anyone who would like to purchase them.
Gerry Berkelhammer announced that in addition to our regular meeting place in the Convocation Room of the Friend Center, we would have a total of six meetings in the Field Center this year, as well as two meetings elsewhere: October 29 in Bowen Hall and November 5 in the Frist Film and Performance Center. Reminders would be sent out about these alternative locations.
President Hansen said that next week’s speaker will be Danielle Allen. He then asked Jim Johnson to introduce this week’s speaker, Professor Julian Zelizer.
Jim Johnson said that Julian Zelizer is Professor of History and Public Affairs. Zelizer holds a BA (summa cum laude) from Brandeis and an M.A. (with distinction) and a Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins. Before coming to Princeton two years ago, Professor Zelizer spent three years in Boston, at Boston University and at Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies. He is the author of two books, The Struggle to Reform Congress and its Consequences 1948-2000, and Taxing America: Wilbur Mills, Congress, and the State 1945-75, and is currently working on four more. These will be on the subjects of Washington Warfare, Jimmy Carter, The Reagan Revolution and Editing W– a historical perspective. Professor Zelizer is in great demand in the media and appeared on the Emmy-winning History Channel program, “Great Moments on the Campaign Trail.” The title of his talk is “The Election of 2008 in Historical Perspective.”
Zelizer began with a few disclaimers. He said he will not predict who will win, he will not be partisan and will not talk about the polls. He said that he wanted to make four points:
2.Would Obama be another Jimmy Carter, as McCain has claimed? Both Carter and Obama ran against the Washington establishment, both called for a new kind of politics, both were accused of style over substance. Obama’s positions, however, are generally aligned with the Democratic Party. When Carter was in the White House, Democrats were deeply divided and he didn’t get along with the Congressional leadership. Obama faces a generally united Democratic party and has an excellent relationship with Congressional leaders. Biden also helps. When Carter was running, the Conservative movement was in the ascendancy and he was often outflanked by Newt Gingrich et al. Obama faces a Republican party that is very divided and Conservatives were not excited by McCain before Palin. Also, Democrats have now built a network that would give Obama far more muscle than Carter had.
3. Are we entering a post-partisanship environment? Both campaigns say that they want a different tone, against partisanship and bickering. But increased partisanship has evolved since the 70s and is now very deep. Both parties have lost their centers. In the 70s, 30% in Congress identified themselves as centrists. In the 90s it was down to 10% and its clearly less than that today with neither party having many people willing to cross the aisle. That has made primaries more important with candidates making promises to their most extreme supporters. Moreover, the media doesn’t facilitate bi-partisanship. With a 24/7 news cycle it is much more difficult for politicians to control information. Furthermore gerrymandered districts have given strong incentives for House candidates to keep their voters happy. Finally, money is important in generating partisanship. There is a large constellation of interest groups in Washington, D.C. Either candidate will face the same partisanship in Congress as has been seen in the last several years.
4. Do debates matter? They will be decisive this year. In October 1980, Reagan and Carter were even in the polls. Reagan gave the impression of making gaffes, of being inexperienced, of being not too smart. He was nervous about going one-on-one with Carter but gained confidence by doing well at the Al Smith dinner earlier in the month. In the debate, he did extremely well. Carter spoke at length on health care while Reagan chuckled and said “There you go again” which undercut all that Carter stood for. Reagan also asked the question: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”.A big spike in Reagan’s numbers followed the debate with undecided voters going for Reagan, thereby sealing the result. Debates can turn the election depending on the performances of the candidates.
A lively question and answer followed with questions about Hillary Clinton, the issue of race, the issue of whether voters prefer a divided government, the issue of age and the issue of whether Obama’s lawyer-like manner is a handicap to him.
The meeting adjourned at 11:30 AM.
[minute taker not noted]
Jerry Freedman introduced his guest, Dr. Hugh Allen. President Hansen called for a few minutes silence in memory of three Old Guard members who died over the summer, Kenneth (Barney) Barnhart, Colin Henry and James McKeever.
John Schmidt, of the Membership Committee, announced that there will be an election of new members next week. There are seven new prospective members and biographical profiles of each were distributed to all those in attendance. There are also four new emeritus members: Ed Coda, Sy Meisel, Sam Petok and Bob Gunther-Mohr. They were invited to come to the front to be recognized and Sy Meisel said a few words, namely that he had been told at 28 that his blood pressure was too high and he would not have long to live, so that he regards having reached 86 to be his greatest accomplishment.
Treasurer Guy Dean has for sale Old Guard ties and scarves for anyone who would like to purchase them.
Gerry Berkelhammer announced that in addition to our regular meeting place in the Convocation Room of the Friend Center, we would have a total of six meetings in the Field Center this year, as well as two meetings elsewhere: October 29 in Bowen Hall and November 5 in the Frist Film and Performance Center. Reminders would be sent out about these alternative locations.
President Hansen said that next week’s speaker will be Danielle Allen. He then asked Jim Johnson to introduce this week’s speaker, Professor Julian Zelizer.
Jim Johnson said that Julian Zelizer is Professor of History and Public Affairs. Zelizer holds a BA (summa cum laude) from Brandeis and an M.A. (with distinction) and a Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins. Before coming to Princeton two years ago, Professor Zelizer spent three years in Boston, at Boston University and at Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies. He is the author of two books, The Struggle to Reform Congress and its Consequences 1948-2000, and Taxing America: Wilbur Mills, Congress, and the State 1945-75, and is currently working on four more. These will be on the subjects of Washington Warfare, Jimmy Carter, The Reagan Revolution and Editing W– a historical perspective. Professor Zelizer is in great demand in the media and appeared on the Emmy-winning History Channel program, “Great Moments on the Campaign Trail.” The title of his talk is “The Election of 2008 in Historical Perspective.”
Zelizer began with a few disclaimers. He said he will not predict who will win, he will not be partisan and will not talk about the polls. He said that he wanted to make four points:
- Do Vice-Presidents matter?
- Will Barack Obama be another Jimmy Carter?
- Will there be a decline in partisanship after the election?
- How important are debates?
2.Would Obama be another Jimmy Carter, as McCain has claimed? Both Carter and Obama ran against the Washington establishment, both called for a new kind of politics, both were accused of style over substance. Obama’s positions, however, are generally aligned with the Democratic Party. When Carter was in the White House, Democrats were deeply divided and he didn’t get along with the Congressional leadership. Obama faces a generally united Democratic party and has an excellent relationship with Congressional leaders. Biden also helps. When Carter was running, the Conservative movement was in the ascendancy and he was often outflanked by Newt Gingrich et al. Obama faces a Republican party that is very divided and Conservatives were not excited by McCain before Palin. Also, Democrats have now built a network that would give Obama far more muscle than Carter had.
3. Are we entering a post-partisanship environment? Both campaigns say that they want a different tone, against partisanship and bickering. But increased partisanship has evolved since the 70s and is now very deep. Both parties have lost their centers. In the 70s, 30% in Congress identified themselves as centrists. In the 90s it was down to 10% and its clearly less than that today with neither party having many people willing to cross the aisle. That has made primaries more important with candidates making promises to their most extreme supporters. Moreover, the media doesn’t facilitate bi-partisanship. With a 24/7 news cycle it is much more difficult for politicians to control information. Furthermore gerrymandered districts have given strong incentives for House candidates to keep their voters happy. Finally, money is important in generating partisanship. There is a large constellation of interest groups in Washington, D.C. Either candidate will face the same partisanship in Congress as has been seen in the last several years.
4. Do debates matter? They will be decisive this year. In October 1980, Reagan and Carter were even in the polls. Reagan gave the impression of making gaffes, of being inexperienced, of being not too smart. He was nervous about going one-on-one with Carter but gained confidence by doing well at the Al Smith dinner earlier in the month. In the debate, he did extremely well. Carter spoke at length on health care while Reagan chuckled and said “There you go again” which undercut all that Carter stood for. Reagan also asked the question: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”.A big spike in Reagan’s numbers followed the debate with undecided voters going for Reagan, thereby sealing the result. Debates can turn the election depending on the performances of the candidates.
A lively question and answer followed with questions about Hillary Clinton, the issue of race, the issue of whether voters prefer a divided government, the issue of age and the issue of whether Obama’s lawyer-like manner is a handicap to him.
The meeting adjourned at 11:30 AM.
[minute taker not noted]